"By the way we usually calculate these things, Alabama is 28 or 29 percentage points more Republican than the country as a whole, but Jones just won an election there by 1 or 2 points,representing a 30-point swing from the norm. That is, we have about 30 percentage points worth of blame to assign. So how to divvy them up?


?First, we can assign about 10 points to the national political environment. That's because the generic Congressional ballot favors Democrats by about 10 points, meaning that you'd expect the Democrat to win the typical swing seat by about 10 points in this political climate.3

?Next, we can assign about 10 points to Moore's problems as a candidate other than the sexual misconduct allegations. If Republicans ordinarily win in Alabama by 25 or 30 points, and the national environment favors Democrats by 10 points, you'd expect a "generic" Republican candidate to be ahead by 15 or 20 points. Instead, Moore's lead was in the range of 5 to 10 points in polls before the sexual misconduct allegations came to light.

?And finally, we can assign another 10 points to shifts in voter preferences and turnout patterns because of the misconduct allegations. That roughly matches the swing from the pre-allegation polls to Jones's eventual margin of victory. It also lines up with empirical research on the electoral effects of scandals. Although many voters didn't believe the allegations, many others did, and it affected Moore's campaign in a variety of ways, such as by decreasing Republican enthusiasm."

Republicans Shouldn't Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier
Alabama is more evidence that the GOP needs to be worried about 2018.
Nate Silver



-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

Jones won because Soros PAID for a smear campaign against Moore.

Fraud abounds...and there is proof.

Multitudes of it.

Fraud.

That's how Jones won.



-------------------------
The REAL truth is....both of the forum idiots are OWNED.
-BOTH of them have no clue who their owner is.
-They are both card carrying narcissists.
^These are PROVED facts.

Oh crap- I didn't realize that we have the ANSWER MAN right here.

Why have we been wasting our time with all these other people.. FK is omniscient!

Looks like it's all a conspiracy- (unless it's the other way around- in that case, "The people have spoken and we are tired of your CRAP!")

How did we miss this??

Tell us Oh Wise One - Who shot JR???



-------------------------


When America was "great"

Jones won because he is not a pedophile and terrible stain hiding behind a bible.

Roy Moore worked out as well as trump Steaks did.

... or Trump University

Virginia and now Alabama are backlash votes against Trump.

He is toxic.

Soros tricked everyone with his billions and liberalism. What this country needs is some conservative billionaires who are politically active for a change. That's the ticket.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

I can hear it now: "but he won the electoral college"......

-------------------------
It's a democratic hoax

Toxic particularly among women.

Trump's support is a orange albatross around the neck of Republican senate candidates from Alabama.
Luther Strange- loser
Roy Moore- loser

Maybe he should start supporting the Democrat candidates.

Women are mad as hell and they aren't taking it anymore...



-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".

White women of Talibama still voted heavily for Moore.

Blacks actually came out. That's why Jones won there.

Will it happen again in 2018 nationwide? Remains to be seen.

Actually, not so heavy. A lot of white women who voted for the traitor president broke away to the decent guy this time.

But the African American vote turnout was probably the decisive factor.
Moore really messed up by expressing his fondness for the days of slavery, and his disdain for the constitutional amendment that ended it.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

Edited: 12/13/2017 at 10:29 AM by WG

Forget about the bull whippings and hangings which could get bloody and ugly, those were good times!

JONES WON BECAUSE HE WASN'T A SCUMMM BAG.

morre lost, because he was...

and the pendulum begins to shift...

Popcorn please...

get used to it lil' f'bomber...

Voters stayed home

Then explain where all of those millions of Soros money went.


-------------------------
The REAL truth is....both of the forum idiots are OWNED.
-BOTH of them have no clue who their owner is.
-They are both card carrying narcissists.
^These are PROVED facts.

"Voters stayed home "

Those conservatives disgusted with Moore might have.
But Democrats, Republican crossovers and black folks sure turned out.

Turnout was about 25 percent, far exceeding the turnout for the primaries and the Republican runoff in the Senate race.
The turnout for the Aug. 15 primary was 18 percent, and the turnout for the Sept. 26 Republican runoff was 15 percent.


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

It's for the best that 'Ol Roy lost.

I don't think whipping out a snubnose .38 during a campaign rally is good judgement.