Alternative data soon to be a feature in the Trump Administration.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-20/trump-team-fosters-fears-he-ll-adopt-alternative-economic-facts

President Donald Trump complains regularly about what he calls "fake news." What's got some statisticians worried, though, is the risk of doctored economic data coming from the administration itself.

While there are government directives in place to prevent that from happening, the number crunchers worry that the president's occasionally cavalier comments on the economy and economic statistics, and his apparent disdain for economists in general, could mean trouble ahead.

One month into his presidency, Trump has yet to nominate anyone to the Council of Economic Advisers, established in 1946 to provide presidents with objective economic analysis and advice. Indeed, staffers at the council complain that the White House seems to be giving short shrift to the regular reports they produce on the economy, a person familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity.

There are rules that "protect the statistics from direct manipulation, but don't address all my concerns about independence," Brent Moulton, who retired in December after 32 years at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, wrote in a Jan. 24 blog post.

"For example, a Cabinet secretary could still order the statistical agency to drop certain statistics or to change methodologies in ways that seem politically expedient," he added in the piece, titled "Why I'm Concerned About the Independence of U.S. Statistical Agencies."

Track the Progress of the Trump Economy

In what may be a sign that is happening, the Wall Street Journal on Sunday reported that the Trump administration is considering changes that would make the U.S. trade deficit look bigger than currently reported. Citing unidentified people involved in the discussions, the newspaper said the new calculations could be presented to Congress, but that it wasn't clear if they would be included in official government data on the economy.

Trump has repeatedly accused past administrations of failing to protect America's interests on the trade front. Figures showing larger deficits would serve to buttress that argument and support the president's calls for retaliatory action against China and other U.S. trading partners.

The fears about data manipulation also arise from the nontraditional approach the Trump administration has taken to interpreting economic data. The president himself has repeatedly cast the "real" unemployment rate as far above the official rate, using figures that incorporate all those of working age who aren't employed.

"Don't believe these phony numbers," Trump told supporters of the jobless rate in early 2016. "The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35 [percent]. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent."

While this captures a broader swath of those without a job than the more well-known 4.8 percent jobless rate, it's misleading because it includes those who choose to be out of work for reasons including school, parenting, care for a family member, or retirement. In 2015 Trump said the U.S. had 93 million people out of work.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reinforced the skepticism during his Senate confirmation hearing, stating outright that the "unemployment rate is not real" -- a view backed days later by White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, in a briefing with reporters.

"My biggest concern right now is about the unemployment statistics, just because the White House has been attacking them, and I know how demoralizing that can be to employees when your statistics are being attacked and when you don't have anyone at the agency level who can speak up for you and defend you," Moulton said in a telephone interview last month.

"I could view a situation, if that were to persist, where you could get employees leaving, finding other jobs and that sort of thing just because they find it demoralizing," he added.

Repeated questioning of an agency's credibility could hamper an already tough recruitment process, especially of younger workers who'll be especially needed as more baby boomers in the federal government leave the workforce.

Statistical agency veterans also worry that budget cutbacks could threaten the integrity of the economic data.

With Republicans promising big tax cuts coupled with fiscal prudence, the chances are increasing that they'll take the ax to budgets of various government agencies, including those involved in compiling economic data. Trump signed an executive memorandum on Jan. 23 to impose a hiring freeze on federal government agencies.

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"I think we have in place, if someone's doing something that's inappropriate -- pressured to fudge numbers or something like that, whatever it is -- there's recourse to that for the career and civil servant, or someone who notices it and says something bad is going on," former Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker said in a Jan. 13 interview in her Washington office during the final days of President Barack Obama's administration.

Ensuring Reliability

"What I worry about is funding to make sure that we have money to actually gather the data, and make sure that it's reliable and durable," she said.

In a sign that concern is not limited to one side of the political spectrum, the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute and liberal-leaning Brookings Institution are co-sponsoring a conference in Washington March 2 on the "Vital role of Government Statistics: Strengthening Research, Governance, and Innovation."

"The modern economy is more reliant on data than ever before," the think-tanks said in an e-mail announcing the conference, with speakers that include economist Martin Feldstein, a former CEA chairman. "Without reliable information about the economic and social environment, making sensible choices that produce positive outcomes in commerce, research, and governance is impossible."

University of Oregon professor Mark Thoma said he's worried that the Trump administration's championing of "alternative facts" could spread to the economic data if the economy turns sour.

"The worst thing he could do -- and I see this as a real danger -- would be to politicize the agencies that produce government economic data, to put people in place that will skew the numbers in his favor," Thoma said in a Jan. 24 commentary for CBS MoneyWatch. "If that happens, the data will be useless, and we'll essentially be flying blind when it comes to the true state of the economy."
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I was right.

As the United States moves another step closer to dictatorship.

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I was right.

His people will believe whatever he says.

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Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".

True dat. Look at the shit they've fallen for so far.

...and there's no end in site.

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I was right.

Most of his follower have the mental capacity of Fishy. Which places them in a very low state of mind. All they think about is buckets of chicken, what might be taken away from them, and anything free they can get before someone else.


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I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I noticed it always coincides with their own desires

Susan B. Anthony
1896

Impeach Trump

From fake news to real fake news. How's that for making America great again?

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Did the U3 unemployment rate not skew the data in Obama's favor?

The inventor of Fake News;

Here are the nine biggest lies that Obama told in his DNC speech.

 

1. Obama painted a rosier picture of the economy than it really is. "After the worst recession in 80 years, we’ve fought our way back," Obama said. "We’ve seen deficits come down, 401(k)s recover, an auto industry set new records, unemployment reach eight-year lows, and our businesses create 15 million new jobs."

 

Here's why each of these claims is false, in respective order:

 

• Ronald Reagan inherited a worse economy than Obama.
• According to USA Today, while deficits have declined under Obama, "they are expected to rise again soon under his proposed budget." Additionally, as The Daily Wire editor-in-chief Ben Shapiro explains here, Obama completely "blew out" the deficit to $1 trillion in first year in office and created a $4 trillion budget, doubling the $2 trillion budget preceding him. He then reduced the budget to $3.5 trillion–not as much, but absurdly high. The overall debt is now over $19 trillion in debt.
• It is natural for 401(k)s to recover on their own after a recession. But the Obama administration is pushing regulations that would drive people into government-run retirement accounts.
• The Federal Reserve's "easy money" practices have resulted in an artificially inflated auto industry that's being set up for disaster.
• The unemployment figure is incredibly misleading since it's not including those that have dropped out of the workforce.
• The 15 million jobs number is also misleading without context, and there's actually a 14 million "jobs gap," according to Investor's Business Daily.

 

2. Obama lied about the troops. He said that "we brought more of our troops home to their families." Problem is, 75 percent of U.S. soldier deaths in Afghanistan have occurred under Obama.

 

3. He also lied about the success of his diplomacy. Obama bloviated that his diplomacy "shut down Iran’s nuclear weapons program" and "opened up a new chapter with the people of Cuba."

 

Actually, the Iran deal has paved the way for the terror state to obtain nuclear weapons sooner than expected, and his relations on Cuba have further tightened the iron fist of the Castro brother's tyrannical regime.

 

4. Obama twisted his administration's record on ISIS. "Our troops have pounded ISIL without mercy, taking out leaders, taking back territory," Obama blustered.

 

The Obama administration has waged mere "pinprick" strikes against ISIS, while the Islamic terror organization is expanding globally and terror attacks are occurring more frequently under Obama. 

 

He also said that "Hillary won’t relent until ISIL is destroyed"–which is laughable since Clinton is in part responsible for the rise of ISIS.

 

5. Obama also lied about Clinton's foreign policy credentials. Obama said:

 

And if you’re concerned about who’s going to keep you and your family safe in a dangerous world – well, the choice is even clearer.  Hillary Clinton is respected around the world not just by leaders, but by the people they serve.  She’s worked closely with our intelligence teams, our diplomats, our military. And she has the judgment, the experience, and the temperament to meet the threat from terrorism. 

 

As The Daily Wire has outlined here, Clinton's foreign policy record is horrendous, with her worst highlight being the ousting of Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi. The result was turning Libya into a cesspool of Islamic terrorism and four brave Americans being murdered at the hands of Islamists at Benghazi, as Clinton lied to the American people that a video was responsible for the attack.

 

6. Obama says "that illegal immigration and the crime rate are as low as they’ve been in decades." These are both blatantly false. This year is poised to break a record for the number of illegal aliens entering the country, which is part of a broader trend the past couple of years of a surge in illegals crossing the border. As for crime, here are the relevant stats from Heather Mac Donald:

 

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey has again drawn the wrath of the White House for calling attention to the rising violence in urban areas. Homicides increased 9% in the largest 63 cities in the first quarter of 2016; nonfatal shootings were up 21%, according to a Major Cities Chiefs Association survey. Those increases come on top of last year’s 17% rise in homicides in the 56 biggest U.S. cities, with 10 heavily black cities showing murder spikes above 60%.

 

7. Obama said Clinton knows "that democracy doesn’t work if we constantly demonize each other." Clinton has characterized Republicans as her enemies, and has demonized the victims of her husband's sexual philandering as well as the victim of a brutal rapist. Clinton has built her political legacy on demonizing others.

 

8. Obama also said that Clinton "knows that acknowledging problems that have festered for decades isn’t making race relations worse – it’s creating the possibility for people of good will to join and make things better." And yet Clinton tweeted that "white Americans need to do a better job of listening when African Americans talk about the barriers they face" after a black nationalist murdered five police officers in Dallas, TX, hardly the kind of healing rhetoric that was needed.

 

9. Obama thinks that "our country is stronger and more prosperous than it was when we started." The problem is that the American people don't agree, as 73 percent feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.

 

Quotes provided by a transcript of Obama's speech provided by The Los Angeles Times.

 

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Romans 8;18-32 John 3;16-18

Thanks for the load of shit KKK.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Do you agree that Trump should manipulate data?

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I was right.

KKKoleslaw, you were fine with odumbo doing it, why not Donald!

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Romans 8;18-32 John 3;16-18

Obama did not change the way the trade deficit is measured.

The economic data was measured the same way the Bush data was.

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I was right.

He's trying to avoid answering and admitting that he is in fact of institutionalizing alternative facts for the creation of alternative realities. Past lies by anyone do not justify continuing a pattern nor do they justify lying now to address the lies from them. This is the same shit Trump pulled when he completely dismissed all of the intelligence community's conclusion that Russia was behind the hacking because that same intelligence community was so wrong about WMD's. Great logic.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Skirt sales at all time high, you girls are a whiney bunch

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/01/02/yes-donald-trump-lies-a-lot-and-news-organizations-should-say-so/

Yes, Donald Trump 'lies.' A lot. And news organizations should say so.

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Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".