Hey Matt B ... How the hell o are you ??? :)

2nd Light Forums
Decrease font size
Increase font size
Topic Title: Self-Driving Trucks Are Going to Hit Us Like a Human-Driven Truck
Topic Summary:
Created On: 10/26/2016 08:21 AM
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch
1 2 Next Last unread
Topic Tools Topic Tools
View topic in raw text format. Print this topic.
 10/26/2016 08:21 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

"According to the American Trucker Association, there are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the US, and an additional 5.2 million people employed within the truck-driving industry who don't drive the trucks. That's 8.7 million trucking-related jobs.

One further important detail to consider is that truck drivers are well-paid. They provide a middle class income of about $40,000 per year. That's a higher income than just about half (46%) of all tax filers, including those of married households. They are also greatly comprised by those without college educations. Truck driving is just about the last job in the country to provide a solid middle class salary without requiring a post-secondary degree. Truckers are essentially the last remnant of an increasingly impoverished population once gainfully employed in manufacturing before those middle income jobs were mostly all shipped overseas."

The trucking industry expects to see 21% more truck driving jobs by 2020. They also expect to see an increasing shortfall in drivers, with over 100,000 jobs open and unable to find drivers to fill them. Higher demand than supply of truckers also points to higher pay, so for at least the next five years, the future is looking great for truck drivers. The only thing that could put a damper on this would be if the demand for truck drivers were to say... drive off a sharp cliff.

That cliff is the self-driving truck.


details @ medium


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/26/2016 08:27 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

related, amusing:

Cars must not be allowed to develop self-esteem

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/26/2016 11:53 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


stokedpanda

Posts: 4226
Joined Forum: 09/04/2015

Originally posted by: WG

"According to the American Trucker Association, there are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the US, and an additional 5.2 million people employed within the truck-driving industry who don't drive the trucks. That's 8.7 million trucking-related jobs.



One further important detail to consider is that truck drivers are well-paid. They provide a middle class income of about $40,000 per year. That's a higher income than just about half (46%) of all tax filers, including those of married households. They are also greatly comprised by those without college educations. Truck driving is just about the last job in the country to provide a solid middle class salary without requiring a post-secondary degree. Truckers are essentially the last remnant of an increasingly impoverished population once gainfully employed in manufacturing before those middle income jobs were mostly all shipped overseas."



The trucking industry expects to see 21% more truck driving jobs by 2020. They also expect to see an increasing shortfall in drivers, with over 100,000 jobs open and unable to find drivers to fill them. Higher demand than supply of truckers also points to higher pay, so for at least the next five years, the future is looking great for truck drivers. The only thing that could put a damper on this would be if the demand for truck drivers were to say... drive off a sharp cliff.



That cliff is the self-driving truck.





details @ medium


I work for a transportation company and realistically- it took them around 10 years to mandate Electronic log devices in the trucks(mandatory by 2018 I believe), and have been working on speed limiters forever....

To think how long it will take before they allow autonomous trucks I would imagine at least 50 years down the road...Get it down the road!?

-------------------------
I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life
 10/26/2016 12:01 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

I don't think it will take anywhere near that long for it to start.
Logs and speed limiters are costs with little upside to teh trucking companies, of course they are resisted.

This involves serious profit motivation for a very competitive biz , labor is a huge part of their cost, and the basic technology is available right now.
This won't be mandated, it will be driven by the trucking companies.

It will start in a few years with truck trains (one driver, 1/2 dozen automated trucks following) running at night on long hauls and stampede into widespread acceptance within a decade.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/26/2016 12:02 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


StirfryMcflurry

Posts: 8746
Joined Forum: 08/17/2016

If only they had one that....would deliver BEER! Then everyone would be

 10/26/2016 12:04 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

Except the millions more unemployed people who can't even afford beer anymore.

Free beer, that's the answer.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/26/2016 12:11 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


stokedpanda

Posts: 4226
Joined Forum: 09/04/2015

Originally posted by: WG

I don't think it will take anywhere near that long for it to start.

Logs and speed limiters are costs with little upside to teh trucking companies, of course they are resisted.



This involves serious profit motivation for a very competitive biz , labor is a huge part of their cost, and the basic technology is available right now.

This won't be mandated, it will be driven by the trucking companies.



It will start in a few years with truck trains (one driver, 1/2 dozen automated trucks following) running at night on long hauls and stampede into widespread acceptance within a decade.


No logs and speed limiters cost trucking companies time and money to install and limit truck productivity, the reason they are implemented is safety as DOT thinks they will REDUCE truck related fatalities.

So if it takes that long to implement regulations to REDUCE truck fatalities why would they rush something that could INCREASE fatalities??

I dont see it possible, but they are doing experiments in Europe.


-------------------------
I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life
 10/26/2016 12:19 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

I think you are agreeing with me about about the logs & limiters, cost to industry, but benefits to society and drivers.
Little incentive for companies to rush them, plenty for them to stall.

Robotrucks will also reduce fatalities, but more importantly for trucking companies, it will massively reduce costs.
Nothing stands up in the face of the almighty profit margin.

It's not just trucks
Robots are going to put lots of people out of work in the future, this is just the first big wave coming.


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/26/2016 12:26 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


RegularJoe

Posts: 3679
Joined Forum: 11/20/2011

Originally posted by: StirfryMcflurry

If only they had one that....would deliver BEER! Then everyone would be



Funny story... back in the 70's when Anheuser-Busch changed their original pop-top aluminum cans to those circular bumps you had to push in, my dad did a scientific study.

He drank a 6-pack from the original cans and a 6 from the new cans, and then used a syringe to measure the amount of beer left in each can.

He found the new cans left a good bit more beer unreachable in the can, and wrote a complaint letter to AB with his findings.

A week later, a tractor-trailer with AB logos everywhere pulls up to our house during dinner. The rep gets out, grabs a dolly, and personally delivers a couple cases gratis to our front door.

The Baptist neighbors were shocked, thinking my dad had gone over the alcoholic edge. Comedy gold memories, for sure.
 10/26/2016 12:49 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

Was that hush beer, or did they fix it?


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/26/2016 01:15 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


KillerWhale

Posts: 664
Joined Forum: 08/13/2014

Anything that reduces bud or busch intake is a win.

 10/26/2016 02:38 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

I like Bud.


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/27/2016 06:46 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


tom

Posts: 8013
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

The future is here...

Self-Driving Truck’s First Mission: A 120-Mile Beer Run

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/technology/self-driving-trucks-first-mission-a-beer-run.html?_r=0



-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
 10/27/2016 07:04 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


StirfryMcflurry

Posts: 8746
Joined Forum: 08/17/2016

<----Predicticon

 10/27/2016 07:26 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


RegularJoe

Posts: 3679
Joined Forum: 11/20/2011

Beer for stirfry's prediction and tom's finding...

I don't think it was hush-beer, maybe more like customer appreciation, sympathy, or just a desire to meet the guy in person who would conduct such a study and write such a letter.

A few years later though, he did switch to Miller Lite because it had 1/3 less calories than their regular beer, but he drank 2/3 more of it. The Bob Uecker commercials were enticing!
 10/27/2016 08:36 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


tom

Posts: 8013
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

I wonder that if trucks were selfdriving,

you couldn't slow them down, save fuel and make the interstate 

a more user friendly place.

Call me a weenie but

I dislike being passed at 75-80+ mph by trucks (I-75).  

Just yesterday I was behind a blowout at that speed

that had everybody scattering around the highway.



-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
 10/27/2016 08:55 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


stokedpanda

Posts: 4226
Joined Forum: 09/04/2015

Originally posted by: tom

I wonder that if trucks were selfdriving,




you couldn't slow them down, save fuel and make the interstate 




a more user friendly place.




Call me a weenie but




I dislike being passed at 75-80+ mph by trucks (I-75).  




Just yesterday I was behind a blowout at that speed




that had everybody scattering around the highway.






Just thank jah we dont live where there is snow and ice, winter truck accidents happen every year and always some terrible one.



-------------------------
I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life
 10/27/2016 08:56 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


RegularJoe

Posts: 3679
Joined Forum: 11/20/2011

Self-driving vehicles could do almost anything within the laws of physics and the human-generated software that controls them. You could have fully autonomous, highly optimized behavior of every vehicle on the road, cooperatively and adaptively updated. It might even allow for higher-speed operation in certain areas. Two big dangers are, 1) mixing autonomous vehicles with unpredictably-operated vehicles driven by humans; and 2) failure of vehicle sensors and/or software to recognize and correctly interpret objects and scenarios they haven't trained for.

It would also be possible to aggregate many vehicles into a drafting chain that would make NASCAR drivers envious, allowing somewhat more efficiency at higher speed.
 10/27/2016 09:07 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

Originally posted by: RegularJoe

Self-driving vehicles could do almost anything within the laws of physics and the human-generated software that controls them. You could have fully autonomous, highly optimized behavior of every vehicle on the road, cooperatively and adaptively updated. It might even allow for higher-speed operation in certain areas. Two big dangers are, 1) mixing autonomous vehicles with unpredictably-operated vehicles driven by humans; and 2) failure of vehicle sensors and/or software to recognize and correctly interpret objects and scenarios they haven't trained for.

It would also be possible to aggregate many vehicles into a drafting chain that would make NASCAR drivers envious, allowing somewhat more efficiency at higher speed.


I think
slow and steady
and only at night
will be the first wave.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 10/27/2016 09:17 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


RegularJoe

Posts: 3679
Joined Forum: 11/20/2011

That's a good possibility WG, but I think there's currently a high dependence on image-processing software that is more robust in brightly lit scenes than dimly-lit nighttime ones. A good mix of laser + radar + IR + visible sensors will always help, but loss of daylight drops a good channel of info.

More related to the original topic, Mike Bloomberg was recently speaking about future loss of jobs to tech in many areas.
Statistics
146494 users are registered to the 2nd Light Forums forum.
There are currently 0 users logged in to the forum.

FuseTalk Basic Edition - © 1999-2024 FuseTalk Inc. All rights reserved.

First there was Air Jordan .