Why one political scientist thinks Donald Trump might actually win
Updated by Ezra Klein on November 25, 2015, 11:40 a.m. ET @ezraklein

In an exchange with Paul Krugman, political scientist Alan Abramowitz made one of the best cases I've heard for, as Krugman put it, "thinking the Trumpthinkable." At some point, Abramowitz argued, pundits need to admit that Trump has a good chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination.

But that remains a minority viewpoint. Nate Silver, for instance, published a piece arguing that analysts extrapolating forward from Trump's current (and impressively durable) poll lead are likely to be disappointed. So I called Abramowitz and asked him to walk me through his argument in more detail.

Ezra Klein

Right now, the betting markets have Donald Trump at about 20 percent to be the Republican nominee. Do you think that's too high or too low?

Alan Abramowitz

I think it might be a little too low. I certainly don't think he's a strong favorite, but there's no way of really coming up with an accurate prediction of these things. Forecasting nomination contests is a fool's game, I think. I saw what Nate Silver posted on FiveThirtyEight, and what he's saying is reasonable based on the history of these presidential nominations, but there are a couple things I think are different this year.

Silver makes the case that the polls at this point don't necessarily mean much, and you can get big swings in voter preferences in relatively short periods of time. And that's true. What I think is different is Republicans are tuned in to a much greater degree than they were at this point in previous nomination contests. You can see that in polling when you ask whether voters are paying attention, and you can see that in ratings for the debates. The idea that voters aren't tuned in yet and won't make up their minds till January or later may not prove as true as it has in the past.

Because of the higher level of interest and attention this year, these early polls may be more predictive of what's likely to happen.

The second point is Trump isn't only leading in national polling. He's leading in every state poll I've seen. He seems to be ahead in Iowa, in New Hampshire, in South Carolina, Nevada.

Voters say he's a strong leader who will shake up Washington, and that's what they want. He's the leader on big issues like immigration, terrorism, the economy. And the Washington Post/ABC News poll found a plurality - even more voters than actually support him - think he's the candidate with the best chance of winning in November.

If Trump does start to fade out, the good news, from the standpoint of Republican leaders and strategists, is that Ben Carson seems to be beginning to fade in support. The bad news is that the guy who is really well-positioned to pick up Carson and even Trump supporters is Ted Cruz. And Cruz right now is right on Trump's heels in Iowa. He has a very strong organization there, and it's an electorate he could do very well with.

So, to me right now, it looks like there are three potential Republican nominees, and that would be Trump, Cruz, and Rubio.

Ezra Klein

A lot of pundits - and I include myself in this group - have a sort of Underpants Gnomes theory of Marco Rubio's chances. Step one is Rubio is the only acceptable nominee to Republican elites. Step two is ... something. And step three is Rubio wins the nomination.

But when I really look at Rubio, he is about as stylistically and substantively different from Trump as you can get. Rubio is Trump's opposite: young where Trump is old, Hispanic where Trump is white, courtly where Trump is brash, hopeful where Trump is angry, intellectual where Trump is instinctual, an insider where Trump is an outsider, soft on immigration where Trump is beyond hard-line.

That, plus the fact that Rubio's really barely moved in the polls, makes me wonder why so many pundits - again, myself included - feel he's such a likely nominee.

Alan Abramowitz

I agree. In many ways, Rubio offers a pretty sharp contrast with the three anti-establishment candidates. But if you look at his favorability numbers among Republican voters he's very well-liked, and he has very low unfavorables. He has ties to the Tea Party, he's very conservative, and so he's the only plausible establishment candidate I can see winning the nomination at this point.

Ezra Klein

You mentioned that polling shows Republican voters think Trump has the best chance to win the general election while Republican elites are terrified of nominating him. Are you sure Republican voters are wrong there? I think I could make a case that Trump is a stronger general election candidate than, say, Ted Cruz.

Alan Abramowitz

It matters less who the nominee is now than it used to. The overwhelming majority of Republican voters will vote for the Republican nominee no matter who it is, and that's true even if it's Donald Trump. The dislike of Obama and Clinton and the Democrats is so strong that I don't think you'll see mass defections.

But I think you would see some defections, and a Donald Trump would really help with the Democrats' task of mobilizing their base. The Latino vote would certainly be larger than it's ever been. There's no question Trump really scares Latinos and they despise him. There's no other Republican candidate who attracts that kind of animus from Latinos. So I don't see how he could win. I don't see one state he could carry that Mitt Romney didn't carry.

Ezra Klein

In his piece, Nate Silver basically argued that pundits were taking Trump's chances too seriously, but one thing I was thinking about after reading the article is I can't think of a candidate who has been this dominant, for this long, and has been taken less seriously by the media. We pretty much continually cover Trump as if there's no way he can win the nomination, despite the fact that he's led the polls for a long time now. Even when people do consider the idea that the guy leading the polls might also win the nomination, it's framed as this bold, counterintuitive concept.

Alan Abramowitz

Certainly in 2007, Rudy Giuliani was the frontrunner for a long time. But even he didn't dominate the polling like this -

Ezra Klein

Let me push on the Giuliani comparison you're making there. Giuliani was a popular, extremely hawkish, slightly heterodox Republican mayor who ended up getting beaten by a popular, extremely hawkish, slightly heterodox Republican senator. He didn't win, but his replacement was someone very much like him. If that's the analogy for Trump, then I don't see how the support goes to Rubio.

Alan Abramowitz

That's fair, and McCain was pretty lucky. If you look at the way the field lined up in the early primaries, he had a divided field of more conservative candidates who split the vote against him. Giuliani didn't even run in New Hampshire. And Republican voters were not as hostile to their own party's establishment.

Ezra Klein

A lot of the skepticism to Trump - and I include my skepticism here - assumes that at some point, Republican voters take the cue from Republican elites that this guy either is a bad bet in the general or ideologically untrustworthy. But I don't know how much more strongly the Republican Party, and frankly the entire media, could be sending that signal. I don't think I've ever seen such a diverse array of elected officials, party influencers, and media outlets hammer home the same point so relentlessly. So I don't know why it is that we're confident the signal will start working given its complete and total failure up till this point.

Alan Abramowitz

There have been very clear signals already from the Republican establishment, from Fox News, from conservative pundits - it's been clear they think this is really bad for the Republican Party, but it hasn't worked so far.

There have been repeated moments when Trump said something outrageous and there were predictions that this is the beginning of the end of Trump, and then he does better. This goes all the way back to his attacks on John McCain's war record and his sexist attacks on Megyn Kelly. These things don't seem to hurt him. Among his supporters, they take that as a sign that this is a guy who speaks his mind, says a lot of things they agree with - and besides which, who do you trust, Donald Trump or the mainstream media that is telling you he's lying?

Ezra Klein

It seems to me that every time Trump refuses to buckle in one of those fights with the media he proves the central idea of his campaign, which is that he won't be like those Republicans who go to Washington and then get cowed by the media and the special interests into compromising with Democrats and giving up their principles. Every time he refuses to give ground, it's proof that he won't disappoint them by giving ground in office, too.

Alan Abramowitz

I think that's exactly the way they feel, and I don't see what changes that in the next couple of months. It's hard to imagine him doing things much more outrageous than what he's already done.

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Dora Hates You

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Wiki wiki

from 538:

"Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That's something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked."

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"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

Compared to all of the mainstream political wags and all of their Bull Shit, The Donald is not too far off the mark, although he is on the other end of the spectrum. And, that is why so many people like him. Democrat or Republican, many, many, folks are F'ing fed up with the goings on in DC.

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 11/26/2015 at 06:30 PM by dingpatch

They like him because he acts out their reactionary feelings that they can't air in public.  Sort of like this forum.

So he's taught me that many people have crazy anger, fear, irrational blame that they barely contain day to day.  I'll keep that in mind.

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Wiki wiki

just had the post Thanksgiving pinot noir drain with lots of family.  The Christian right cannot stand cruz and cannot believe donald is their best chance.  The local floridian conservative contingent will not vote for brother jeb nor the radicalized cuban jeb understudy.  The democratic side doesn't want to vote for Billary and they are conservative enough to not want to let bernie in.  so, out of 15 people, there is no desirable candidate. We did manage to polish off a case of good wine with the Toad Hollow Pinot getting the highest marks.  

That does pretty much sum it up ....... sad isn't it.




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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

Yep, pomp's got it pretty right.

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Dora Hates You

The Hill

GOP in panic over Trump

The Republican establishment is nearing full-blown panic about Donald Trump.

The demise of Trump's candidacy has been predicted by centrist Republicans and the media alike virtually since the day it began. But there is no empirical evidence at all to suggest it is happening.

Last month, the liberal ThinkProgress collated more than 30 predictions of the business mogul's imminent demise. One typical example was The Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart, who discerned "the beginning of the end of Trump" in mid-July, soon after the mogul criticized the Vietnam War record of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

Despite all that, Trump has led the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average in a virtually unbroken spell for four months. The only person to briefly wrest the lead away from him, Dr. Ben Carson, appears to be fading. And numerous polls show Trump drawing double the support of his closest establishment-friendly rival, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)
Add to all this the fact that Trump's lead over the rest of the GOP field has expanded since the terrorist attacks in Paris, and it becomes clear why anxiety among his many Republican critics is reaching new heights.

"He has a real shot at this. He is the clear front-runner," said Ron Bonjean, a consultant and former aide to GOP leaders on Capitol Hill.

Adding that "months ago, we all discounted Trump as a candidate," Bonjean now acknowledged that it seems "safe to assume that he is going to continue with this strong momentum right into Iowa."

The Iowa caucuses are set for Feb. 1, a little over two months away. Voters tend to pay less attention to politics over the holiday season than at other times, a trend that makes dramatic shifts in the race less likely during that period.

Only one more televised debate will take place before the end of the year, on Dec. 15 in Las Vegas. Beyond that, there will be only one more such clash, in January, four days before the caucuses.

"The media has twisted and turned through a number of different positions where they tried to explain that it was just a fad - the summer of Trump," said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa. "Well, it's lasted all fall. There is a realization that you are not going to wake up tomorrow and he's going to vanish."

Robinson, who is not affiliated with any candidate, was scathing toward those GOP centrists who assert that Trump will be unable to translate his polling support into votes because of a weak ground game.

"That is the wishful thinking of the establishment," he said. "That is what they tell themselves so they can sleep at night. The truth is, Trump has one of the better ground operations in Iowa. Will he turn out every single person who shows up at his rallies? No. But if he turns out a fraction, he will roll over the field."

Trump's critics within the GOP are now coming to believe that an air war - that is, negative TV advertising - is more likely to deliver results than anything else. They note that a $1 million campaign in Iowa by the conservative Club for Growth appeared to put some dent in Trump's numbers. (It also drew the threat of legal action from the candidate.)

A super-PAC backing the presidential candidacy of Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is already targeting the business mogul. On Nov. 20, The Wall Street Journal reported that Liz Mair, a well-known Republican operative, was planning a "guerrilla campaign" against Trump. A memo prepared by Mair's organization, Trump Card LLC, stated that "in the absence of our efforts, Trump is exceedingly unlikely to implode or be forced out of the race."

Rick Wilson, a Florida GOP strategist who has agreed to help produce TV ads for Mair's group if it raises funding, told The Hill, "I expected that the other candidates and campaigns would by now have stepped up to knock down Trump's numbers, and I was wrong. Unlike Donald Trump, I will admit when I have made an error."

But Wilson added that capsizing the businessman's chances at this point would require a significant financial effort.

"It's going to need a sustained commitment from people who need to understand that if you hand the Republican nomination to Donald Trump, you hand the White House to Hillary Clinton," he said.

Some experts still contend that Trump will fall of his own accord, or that his current poll ratings will prove deceptive. Statistician Nate Silver, of the FiveThirtyEight website, has argued that the majority of voters only make their decisions much closer to polling time.

Others have cited the 2012 cycle, when several Republican candidates' stars rose and faded, to suggest that Trump will lose altitude before the first votes are cast.

Silver's thesis seems to rest on the idea that late-deciding voters will make completely different choices than those who have already tuned in to the process - a supposition that may be true but is unproven for now.

As for 2012, while it is true that former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) was leading the RCP average at the equivalent point to now, that was to be a relatively short-lived phenomenon, just as earlier boomlets for candidates such as then-Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and businessman Herman Cain had proved to be.

In fact, the consistency of Trump's polling performance this cycle has more in common with the steady showing of eventual 2012 nominee Mitt Romney than anyone else.

Other anti-Trump forces within the GOP hold out hope that as the field winnows, the whole dynamic of the race will shift, with primary voters coalescing around a different option.

But none of that is guaranteed. Trump remains as bullishly confident as ever. And Republican insiders know the hour is getting late.

"If Trump is not your cup of tea, it's time to bring your own coffee pot out and start brewing something," said Robinson.

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Dora Hates You

Trump really, irrevocably sucks.

Now the loon is denying it and denying knowing him.  This fucker is mentally ill.

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Wiki wiki

Imagine if Obama wanted to do a national registry of American citizens, then followed up by saying you should spy on your neighbors "just in case."

Come on all you Constitutional Tea Party types, isn't it time for you to speak out against these attacks on our freedom?

Fucking hypocrites.

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I was right.

Pompano and wookie winng my vote.

 

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  Trying to think of something new

 

 

 

I will probably get bashed for saying this, but I don't give a crap. He might not be politically correct in many ways, but he does speak his mind, while veryone else is hiding behind their lobbyist(s). At the very least by voting for him you might be getting what you asked for and know it ahead of time. LOL.

There is something wrong with him as far as his preception of reality and his positions are pretty shallow, but also think he has done a good job shaking up the GOP establishment.  

I wouldn't have thought this a couple months ago, but now I can see him forcing the hand of the RNC and getting the nod.  That would be a hoot. 

 

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If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV

I wouldn't have thought this a couple months ago, but now I can see him forcing the hand of the RNC and getting the nod. That would be a hoot.

And then he will have to deal with the fact that he has said:

That he detests fat people.

Blacks are lazy.

Hispanics are rapists and criminals.

That women are good to look at and not much else.

So yep, he is the equal opportunity offender. Let's see how his non PC ways fare in the general election.





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I was right.

If Reagan won, anythings possible.

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Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean

pomp

Yep: " The world needs a drink"

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.