US Economic Comment

from Maury Harris, Economist, UBS

"Stronger Q2 GDP, and a stronger outlook. 4.0% Q2 GDP
Real GDP rose at a 4.0% annual rate in Q2 (cons 3.0%, UBSe 2.9%). The report
included large upward revisions to recent quarters: Q1 is now -2.1% was -2.9%. Q4 is
now 3.5% instead of 2.6%. Q3 is now 4.5% instead of 4.1%. The result: less softness
over the past year, and a bigger Q2 rebound from Q1 weakness than we had
anticipated.
Where was the strength in Q2? Final sales accelerated to +2.3% from -1.0%, with
especial strength in consumption (2.5% vs UBSe 2.1%, cons 2.0%). Business fixed
investment and residential investment also accelerated. There was also a huge rebound
in inventory investment, which added 1.7 pct pt to growth in Q2 after subtracting 1.2
pct pt in Q1.
As well as the stronger growth figures, core PCE prices accelerated to a 2.0% annual
rate from a 1.2% pace in Q1 (a pickup relative to the 1.5%y/y pace through Q2). Total
PCE prices have accelerated even more sharply, to a 2.3% q/q pace in Q2 vs 1.6% y/y."


I full well understand that you repug and teabaggers are incapable of understanding how the economy works. I just keep pasting this to let you know how lame you are.

You dipshits just fail to understand that the biz of America is biz. So stop bitchin and enjoy the fruit of the land.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Stronger GDP, is better for the man,

4% is better, Repugs don't understand,

It's means a better economy,

since there's money in our hands

no "trickle down" baloney,

it takes the common man.

 

 

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Blame it on O'bama.

So following what be logic and market fundamentals this news would imply good news for market - expect to see a rally.

 

But but but in 2014 crazy ass economics I think even with this good news still might see a 5-10% correction... especailly if the fed comes out soon as says something like I'm not gonna raise interest rates

 

But yes  fundamentals are solid and all point to ongoing bull market unless some serious event like major war

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

it is what it is.

and what will be, will be.

Jobless today 300,000 soon to be revised; slowest recovery on record, dow down 100 to open? Sure hope it gets better

A common mistake made by teabaggers, repugs and other assosted conservo freaks to to corlate the "economy" to the "stock market":

from Peter Lee UBS:

"Equities - US Equities (SPX) - Does the recent June 2014 breakout above 1,928 negate a bearish 4-month broadening top signaling the meltup
phase to the 5-plus year bull rally? Or is this a false breakout/bull trap (below 1,926-1,946), triggering the start of a deeper correction and
worse, the beginning of a bear market decline? On a positive note, a breakout above 1,928 suggests +114 points or an upside target at 2,042.
In the past two months, a new uptrend channel has developed between 1,946 and 2,002. The outcome of this new trend over the next few
weeks/months may offer technical insights to the next major move in US stocks. A breakout above 2,002-2,010 renders the next upside target
at 2,044. On the other hand, a breakdown below 1,945-1,960 and below 1,926 can trigger a pullback to 1,901-1,904 or the 27 May 2014
gap-up and the April 2014 uptrend. The 150-day moving average (1,871) and the bottom of the June 2013 uptrend (1,868) remain pivotal
medium-term support. Violation here warns of a medium-term top in SPX and the start of a deeper correction."

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Really? watch the trends, you're so smart Forrest

Did you know that:

Household debt as a % of disposable personal income at 9.9% is lower than it has been since 1980?

Household net worth at $83,547 is higher than it has ever been ?

Housing starts are still below the 1996 level?
( gradual increases since 08, watch that number if you want to get a very indicitave read on the economy in general)


Course you teabaggers, repugs and other conservo freaks , have your own view that you get from faux, enjoy your lala land .

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

and of course...what is the average annual income of a teabagger? What level of education did said teabaggers obtain?

So if you are a teabagger and you did not graduate high school your average annual earnings are less than 30k. I would suspect most of you fall into that category.

However,

If you managed to get through all 12 grades and get that coveted high school degree from that institute of higher learning say like Rockledge High School, then you average around 32k.

I realize that this next category applies to damn few of you conservo freaks but if you somehow managed to get a BA then you average around 60k. Of this course this next category is just not applicable but for the perverbial shits and grins lets says you got an advanced degree...then you would average over 89k.

Of course if you have any kind of advanced degree you are smart enough to not have to rely on Faux for your information and don't have to google the answer to every question asked of you.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

In the past 20 years which of these asset classes have had the highest returns:

Iflation
Oil
EAFE
Homes
S&P 500
REIT
Bonds
Gold

Average teabag investor

????

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

also from Peter Lee UBS:

"March 2000 structural trend and the March 2009 cyclical bull trend will likely end in the next 6 months to 2 years
We believe the cyclical bull trend from March 2009 low has entered into the third stage of a four-stage bull market rally (January 2013 - unofficial; and June 2013 -
official). It is commonly referred to as the mania/spec/melt-up phase. This is the emotional part of the bull rally where the investment public (retail investors) are often
very active. We also believe the structural sideways trading range trend from March 2000 is nearing its matured phase. Both of these trends (cyclical and structural)
will likely end as early as the next six months to two years. The May 2013 SPX break out at 1,600 is technically significant as this marks the start of the third phase of
the March 2009 cyclical bull trend, but more importantly, signals the start of the next structural bull trend. However, we await a subsequent pullback/correction to
confirm that this is a major breakout and not a false breakout/bull trap. In the mean time, we continue to maintain two possible scenarios for SPX in the years ahead:
Scenario 1 (Bullish View) - The May 2013 breakout above 1,600 hints of the next major structural bull trend. However, a pullback to or near this prior breakout is
probably necessary to confirm a multi-year (14-plus year) technical base. A mid-term election year correction (10+%) can help to set the stage for the next cyclical
bull rally (1-3 years). This bull rally then transitions into the next structural bull market (8-20 years).
Scenario 2 (Bearish View) - The May 2013 break out at 1,600 is a false breakout or a bull trap as SPX fails to maintain this breakout and reverses its prior key
breakout. Instead, this triggers a major sell-off (20% to 30%-plus) and in the process SPX also violates its 30-month ma (1,613) and its pivotal March 2009 uptrend
(1,503-1,513). This action triggers a climatic selloff as SPX falls to 1,100-1,200, thereby washing out the market and resetting the market for the next structural bull."


Take your pick..........

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

The economy still sucks five years after the official end of the recession. Everyone knows it. It you must rely on such drivel to convince yourself that the PiC is great, more power to you. One is free to delude oneself and, obviously, you join a large crowd.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/06/news/economy/american-dream-poll-recovery/index.html

We know what's going on, even if you don't.

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I :heart; Q

So the DOW is down about 280 points 10 minutes before the close and at least one headline says the selloff is due to disappointing earnings reports - but on the other hand we're told Q2 GDP was 4% growth - someone is lying to us Batman!

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The REAL truth is....both of the forum idiots are OWNED.
-BOTH of them have no clue who their owner is.
-They are both card carrying narcissists.
^These are PROVED facts.

Nobody lying. 4% is a fact. "disappointing earnings" is a general statement. The market has been on a tear, it's due for a correction, there are several factors for the drop this week: Russia sanctions, Argentinia bankruptcy, and yes some disappointing earnings. But on the other hand there were alot of positive earnings for example Exxon. In general most people were expecting some correction and feel the economy is strong. Politics aside.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 

Wow cut and paste works...unfortunately has nothing to do with the discussion here but I will note one flaw in any technical analysis pertaining to moving averages. They are based on the assumption that motion will continue in a linear trend, within a given tolerance, and if outside of that then all of a sudden it implies sudden motion in that direction ( e.g. expect correction if falls below a certain critcal level easily computed from that tolerance - simple pre calc alg problem). But #1 they fail to consider the corrective nature of the market, for example a lot of people will buy when see dip, and #2 when shit hits the fan it happens so quick that it blows past that critical level before you can fart  ( ex 1987 was  22% in a day and the recent one was something like 20% in a week)...

 

But my point was a good economy should imply a good stock markets. If you don't believe that perhaps you don't understand exactly what the value of a stock means...you know that company's estimate based on forward p/e ration (for simplicity think of that as future profit). So if the economy is doing good then people should be making money, have disposable income to spend which in turn makes companies profitable, hence a increasing stock value. Other than just political biased I don't see how you could make any argument against a correlation between the stock market & overall economy¿?¿?¿?¿? 

 

 

Anyways, probably a pretty good buying opportunity especially if this cease fire holds in Gaza...IMHO a little hesitant though 

 

 

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Edited: 07/31/2014 at 05:28 PM by surferclimber

Well Forrest now that everyone knows just how smart you are; I retired at 56. Don't owe a dime on anything and have a 7 figure retirement. So save your self gratifying puffed up BS. Really funny how you are the only guy on this forum who knows about econmics and business. 

^

Nice bro that's the way to do it - minimize debt. I'm a thirty something already building nest egg and have just over 10 years left to pay of my mortgage as I bought what I could afford and took a lowered length of the loan with a higher monthly.

 

Anyways, amazing what you did and congratulations... Hope you're enjoying the fruits of your labour + wise decisions and hopefully in 20 years I'll be in that same spot : )

 

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

60 to 70 hour work weeks owning your own business is the only way to survive the Corporate  jungle. Was in that mess for years; found out raises were given by me by hard work and good ethics. Self employment gives more abiltiy to be self sufficient than workin for the man

Yeah, good job, cheater. I could retire now if I wanted to. But, I worry that with nothing to do but to sit around on my butt and drink, etc., I'd become a prog. I just can't take that chance. I wouldn't want to shame my family.

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I :heart; Q