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Some Not-So-Hot Facts About Global Warming Research - Global Cooling Part III
Accesswire
23 hours ago
Consider this:

-In 2013, the UK had the coldest spring since 1963.

-In March 2013, Northern Japan received record snowfall - up to 16 ft thick just south of Aomori.

-In October 2013, the worst frost in more than 80 years hit Chile and damaged 50 million boxes of fruit for export - damages were over $1 billion.

-And my personal favourite - an expedition vessel full of Climate Change scientists became trapped in Antarctic sea ice 10 feet thick on Christmas Day 2013.

These true-life stories are examples of global cooling - from all over the globe.

In Parts I and II of this series, I outlined the long term cycle of temperature changes on Earth, and how sunspots have had an eerily accurate correlation to earth's temperatures for centuries. Data strongly suggests that solar cycles have a definite impact on the world's climate.

And right now, the best data on sunspots also suggest the world is about to enter a time of global cooling. This doesn't deny that mankind is influencing the world's climate; sunspots' very regular 11 year cycles can temporarily overwhelm a larger context of man-made (the scientific term is anthropogenic) influences.

But even that becomes somewhat suspect. Evidence either uncovered or chronicled by a Boston-based research firm, Unit Economics, suggests that government and their scientists, together and independently, have been manipulating data (and caught red handed!).

The February 28, 2014 research paper by Unit Economics on global cooling goes into pages of detail on how some of the most important - and allegedly impartial - raw climate data has been regularly altered by private and public sector members of the scientific community.

And that's really too bad, because people working on questions around global temperature have very few datasets to choose from.

One is the temperature anomaly dataset developed by NOAA (the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The other is from the Met Office Hadley Centre in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in England, which is known as the HadCRUT3 dataset.

NOAA started developing its temperature database in the early 1990s. It was revised once in 1997, and then three times between mid-2011 and the end of 2012.

NOAA says the revisions dealt with new observations methods, corrected coding errors, and removed unnatural influences from things like changes in how instruments were stationed.

In short: lots of revisions, little specific explanation. Not surprisingly, people started accusing NOAA of data tampering (google NOAA data tampering)...and when Unit Economics compared the 2008 NOAA dataset with the most recent version, the changes looked like this:

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Overall, the man-made adjustments created an additional 2.48°F temperature change over the past 100 years - more than the 1.85°F of total warming the NOAA says has taken place since 1913!

Sadly for the general reliability of science, the HadCRUT3 dataset is no better.

CLIMATEGATE

This HadCRUT3 dataset is the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC 's job is to create a "clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge on climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts". That's a mouthful.

The IPCC data did show increasing temperatures. Then, in October 2009, someone broke into a British office of the CRU, downloaded 160 MB of data and emails, and posted them online. The stolen CRU emails show prominent scientists discussing 'adjusting' data to reduce Medieval Warming Period and hiding very recent cooling trends, and making sure they all agree and aren't stepping on each others' toes. Many of these discussions ended with instructions to delete all records of the conversation.

Eventually a U.S. Senate inquiry was set up under chairmanship of Edward Wegman, professor of mathematics and statistics, and their report ruled that Penn State Professor and IPCC lead author Michael Mann's work was 'statistically invalid'.

But even all this couldn't 'adjust' away the reality completely: the tampered HadCRUT3 data still shows global temperatures trending lower over the last 15 years.

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And there are some basic facts question the thesis that manmade CO2 is causing global warming. As I said in Part I, temperatures actually fell during the peak expansion of manmade greenhouse gas levels from 1940-1970.

Second, if CO2 emissions cause global warming the layer of the atmosphere 5 to 10 km above the earth where CO2 interacts with sunlight should be warming more quickly than the earth's surface. In fact, temperatures at these levels have been unchanged since accurate balloon measurements became available 50 years ago.

Third, CO2 levels have cycled significantly over the known history, which stretches back 400,000 years. Our planet has survived CO2 levels roughly half of current concentrations and nearly twenty times higher! That certainly makes the commonly quoted claim that a CO2 concentration above 350 ppm leads inexorably to warmer temperatures seem pretty weak.

Fourth, atmospheric levels of CO2 increased from just under 300 ppm in 1900 to 397 ppm today, yet temperatures fell through much of that period and have increased by only 0.7°F overall - and that's based on heavily manipulated datasets.

And there are some groups, such as the Carbon Modeling Consortium at Columbia University, that suggest human activities in United States may actually reduce atmospheric CO2 levels. In an October 15 1998 issue of the Columbia University News, author Taro Takahashi, a senior research scientist wrote:

"We know that we who reside in the United States emit about 6.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. As an air mass travels from west to east, it should receive carbon dioxide and the East Coast concentration of CO2 should be higher than on the West Coast. But observervations tell us otherwise.

"The mean atmospheric CO2 concentration on the East Coast has been observed to be lower than that over the Pacific coast. This means that more CO2 is taken up by land ecosystems over the United States than is released by industrial activities."

Other tidbits:

-Sea levels are DOWN by .2 cm (0.08 inches) since 2006.
-The polar bear population is up all across the Arctic - as much as 66% in the last 50 years and 13% in the last 5 years.
-water vapor in the air has been declining - more vapor, higher temperatures. Less vapor, lower temperatures.

Again, the current global cooling could be taking place within a larger context of man-made climate change. But even that becomes doubtful when the most basic, raw, original datasets are shown to be corrupted. And there is enough seriousscientific peer review to question the IPCC climate reports - thanks go to Canadian Ross McKitrick from the University of Guelph and German scientist (and former Global Warming advocate) Professor Fritz Vahrenholt, who wrote Die Kalte Sonne (the Cold Sun) in January 2012.

There's a great quote in Unit Economic's report that puts this all into context:

"If one accepts the notion that the sun, which provides over 95% of the heat energy to the surface of the earth, has the potential to impact temperatures, it would be logical to incorporate observations and predictions of solar activity in climate models and forecasts - something most meteorologists and virtually all global warming enthusiasts fail to take into account when modeling earth's climate. We believe this is because solar cycles explain climate cycles on earth too well, leaving too little room for CO2 to influence their models." Weiss and Naleski, Unit Economics' 2014 Report on Global Cooling.

The Real Inconvenient Truth is that there is enough flawed data to question just how serious Global Warming is, or if it's real at all in the short to medium term. Is the hysteria warranted? Keep your mind open, despite the intense politically correct forces out there who make that a crime on this issue.

Keith Schaefer - Editor/Publisher
Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin

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Dora Hates You

ok, I'll make this easy for you Dingpatch. You pay me $50 if the average global temperature increases this year. I'll pay you $50 if it does not. Deal? You specify an agreed upon reference, and no political bullcrap web sites.

[edit] btw, the sea level has been rising as a global average since they began measuring it. You may want to check your references.

Edited: 04/19/2014 at 02:09 PM by pompano

pomp,

No, I'm just throwing it out there, , , , as an example of what is floating around. I'd rather that it got hotter, instead of cooler.

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Dora Hates You

I'd rather that it got hotter, instead of cooler.

I don't think that's a good idea.

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I was right.

Yin and Yang, it is all about cycles some people are just trying to make money off the hype, ie AL GORE and his environmental hack artists.

I agree to disagree

 

 

Well, , , , yes, hotter is better. Take a look at the dire results of "cooler". Seems to be much worse that "hotter".

And, , , , yes and but, , , , I'm inclined to agree that it is getting warmer. It's the monetization that I do not agree with; those that can afford to buy "carbon credits" get to continue with their polluting ways.

Oh, , , , and, , , , the sunspot data seems to be rather empirical, but why do certain fronts/groups try their hardest to ignore it? Because they currently do not have an easy way to profit from it.

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 04/20/2014 at 11:43 AM by dingpatch

Not yin and yang in science.

More like the laws of thermodynamics.

It's the law.

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A gentle answer turns away wrath, but a harsh word stirs up anger.

regarding the "sunspots"

Text

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"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

FP COMMENT


Lawrence Solomon: A global cooling consensus

Republish Reprint
Lawrence Solomon | October 31, 2013 7:30 PM ET
More from Lawrence Solomon | @LSolomonTweets

In the last two years, the scientific community's openness to examining the role of the Sun in climate change - as opposed to the role of man - has exploded.

Solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years

In the 1960s and 1970s, a growing scientific consensus held that the Earth was entering a period of global cooling. The CIA announced that the "Western world's leading climatologists have confirmed recent reports of detrimental global climatic change" akin to the Little Ice Age of the 17th and 18th centuries, "an era of drought, famine and political unrest in the western world." President Jimmy Carter signed the National Climate Program Act to deal with the coming global cooling crisis. Newsweek magazine published a chilling article entitled "The Cooling World."

In the decades that followed, as temperatures rose, climate skeptics mocked the global cooling hypothesis and a new theory emerged - that Earth was in fact entering a period of global warming.

Now an increasing number of scientists are swinging back to the thinking of the 1960s and 1970s. The global cooling hypothesis may have been right after all, they say. Earth may be entering a new Little Ice Age.

"Real risk of a Maunder Minimum 'Little Ice Age,'" announced the BBC this week, in reporting startling findings by Professor Mike Lockwood of Reading University. "Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years [raising the risk of a new Little Ice Age] from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%," explained Paul Hudson, the BBC's climate correspondent. If Earth is spared a new Little Ice Age, a severe cooling as "occurred in the early 1800s, which also had its fair share of cold winters and poor summers, is, according to him, 'more likely than not' to happen."

Related
Lawrence Solomon: Model mockery
Lawrence Solomon: Arctic ice continues to deft doomsters
During the Little Ice Age, the Sun became eerily quiet, as measured by a near disappearance of the sunspots that are typically present. Solar scientists around the world today see similar conditions, giving impetus to the widespread view that cold times lie ahead. "When we have had periods where the Sun has been quieter than usual we tend to get these much harsher winters" echoed climatologist Dennis Wheeler from Sunderland University, in a Daily Express article entitled "Now get ready for an 'Ice Age' as experts warn of Siberian winter ahead."

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Scientists at the Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Berne in Switzerland back up theories that support the Sun's importance in determining the climate on Earth. In a paper published this month by the American Meteorological Society, the authors demolish the claims by IPCC scientists that the Sun couldn't be responsible for major shifts in climate. In a post on her website this month, Judith Curry, Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, all-but mocked the IPCC assertions that solar variations don't matter. Among the many studies and authorities she cited: the National Research Council's recent report, "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," and NASA, former home of global warming guru James Hansen.

As NASA highlighted in a press release in January of this year, in citing the NRC report on solar variations: "There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate." To bolster the argument that solar activity could explain the Little Ice Age as well as lesser changes, NASA then listed some dozen authorities, including Dan Lubin of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, whose research on other sun-like stars in the Milky Way suggest that "the Sun's influence could be overpowering."

In the last two years, the scientific community's openness to examining the role of the Sun in climate change - as opposed to the role of man - has exploded. Scientists are now rediscovering earlier works by scientists at the Danish National Space Center who as early as the 1990s published peer-reviewed articles demonstrating the Sun's role in climate change. And by scientists at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Pulkovo Observatory, whose predictions in the last decade that global cooling would start in this decade are looking especially prescient.

All will be rediscovering the science of the 1960s and 1970s, which even earlier sounded the alarm on the coming period of global cooling. Those early scientists expected the cooling trend of the 1960s and 1970s to relent for several decades, as it in fact did. "None of us expected uninterrupted continuation of the trend," explained Columbia University's George Kukla in 2007, whose 1972 letter to the president triggered the U.S. government's decision to take immediate action on the threat of global cooling.

Global warming always precedes an ice age, Kukla explained. The warming we saw in the 1980s and 1990s, in other words, was expected all along, much as the calm before the storm.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe, a Toronto-based environmental group. LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com.

To see the CIA's 1974 dramatic warnings about global cooling, click here.

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Dora Hates You

OP/ED 5/26/2013 @ 9:44AM 447,373 views
To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here
656 comments, 27 called-out Comment Now
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English: Ice age Earth at glacial maximum. Bas...
Around 1250 A.D., historical records show, ice packs began showing up farther south in the North Atlantic. Glaciers also began expanding on Greenland, soon to threaten Norse settlements on the island. From 1275 to 1300 A.D., glaciers began expanding more broadly, according to radiocarbon dating of plants killed by the glacier growth. The period known today as the Little Ice Age was just starting to poke through.


Summers began cooling in Northern Europe after 1300 A.D., negatively impacting growing seasons, as reflected in the Great Famine of 1315 to 1317. Expanding glaciers and ice cover spreading across Greenland began driving the Norse settlers out. The last, surviving, written records of the Norse Greenland settlements, which had persisted for centuries, concern a marriage in 1408 A.D. in the church of Hvalsey, today the best preserved Norse ruin.

Colder winters began regularly freezing rivers and canals in Great Britain, the Netherlands and Northern France, with both the Thames in London and the Seine in Paris frozen solid annually. The first River Thames Frost Fair was held in 1607. In 1607-1608, early European settlers in North America reported ice persisting on Lake Superior until June. In January, 1658, a Swedish army marched across the ice to invade Copenhagen. By the end of the 17th century, famines had spread from northern France, across Norway and Sweden, to Finland and Estonia.

Reflecting its global scope, evidence of the Little Ice Age appears in the Southern Hemisphere as well. Sediment cores from Lake Malawi in southern Africa show colder weather from 1570 to 1820. A 3,000 year temperature reconstruction based on varying rates of stalagmite growth in a cave in South Africa also indicates a colder period from 1500 to 1800. A 1997 study comparing West Antarctic ice cores with the results of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) indicate a global Little Ice Age affecting the two ice sheets in tandem.

The Siple Dome, an ice dome roughly 100 km long and 100 km wide, about 100 km east of the Siple Coast of Antartica, also reflects effects of the Little Ice Age synchronously with the GISP2 record, as do sediment cores from the Bransfield Basin of the Antarctic Peninsula. Oxygen/isotope analysis from the Pacific Islands indicates a 1.5 degree Celsius temperature decline between 1270 and 1475 A.D.

The Franz Josef glacier on the west side of the Southern Alps of New Zealand advanced sharply during the period of the Little Ice Age, actually invading a rain forest at its maximum extent in the early 1700s. The Mueller glacier on the east side of New Zealand's Southern Alps expanded to its maximum extent at roughly the same time.

Ice cores from the Andeas mountains in South America show a colder period from 1600 to 1800. Tree ring data from Patagonia in South America show cold periods from 1270 to 1380 and from 1520 to 1670. Spanish explorers noted the expansion of the San Rafael Glacier in Chile from 1675 to 1766, which continued into the 19th century.

The height of the Little Ice Age is generally dated as 1650 to 1850 A.D. The American Revolutionary Army under General George Washington shivered at Valley Forge in the winter of 1777-78, and New York harbor was frozen in the winter of 1780. Historic snowstorms struck Lisbon, Portugal in 1665, 1744 and 1886. Glaciers in Glacier National Park in Montana advanced until the late 18th or early 19th centuries. The last River Thames Frost Fair was held in 1814. The Little Ice Age phased out during the middle to late 19th century.


The Little Ice Age, following the historically warm temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from about AD 950 to 1250, has been attributed to natural cycles in solar activity, particularly sunspots. A period of sharply lower sunspot activity known as the Wolf Minimum began in 1280 and persisted for 70 years until 1350. That was followed by a period of even lower sunspot activity that lasted 90 years from 1460 to 1550 known as the Sporer Minimum. During the period 1645 to 1715, the low point of the Little Ice Age, the number of sunspots declined to zero for the entire time. This is known as the Maunder Minimum, named after English astronomer Walter Maunder. That was followed by the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, another period of well below normal sunspot activity.

The increase in global temperatures since the late 19th century just reflects the end of the Little Ice Age. The global temperature trends since then have followed not rising CO2 trends but the ocean temperature cycles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Every 20 to 30 years, the much colder water near the bottom of the oceans cycles up to the top, where it has a slight cooling effect on global temperatures until the sun warms that water. That warmed water then contributes to slightly warmer global temperatures, until the next churning cycle.

Those ocean temperature cycles, and the continued recovery from the Little Ice Age, are primarily why global temperatures rose from 1915 until 1945, when CO2 emissions were much lower than in recent years. The change to a cold ocean temperature cycle, primarily the PDO, is the main reason that global temperatures declined from 1945 until the late 1970s, despite the soaring CO2 emissions during that time from the postwar industrialization spreading across the globe.

The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, which is the primary reason that global temperatures warmed during this period. But that warming ended 15 years ago, and global temperatures have stopped increasing since then, if not actually cooled, even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this period. As The Economist magazine reported in March, "The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750." Yet, still no warming during that time. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of global temperature changes.

At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has developed over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles, with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11 year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has collapsed. NASA's Science News report for January 8, 2013 states,


"Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion."

That is even more significant because NASA's climate science has been controlled for years by global warming hysteric James Hansen, who recently announced his retirement.

But this same concern is increasingly being echoed worldwide. The Voice of Russia reported on April 22, 2013,

"Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless."

That report quoted Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory saying, "Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn't bring about considerable climate change - only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater - up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years." In other words, another Little Ice Age.

The German Herald reported on March 31, 2013,

"German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in 208 years - and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory [saying this] is proof as he said earlier that we are heading for a "Mini Ice Age." Talking to German media the scientist who first made his prediction in 2005 said that after studying sunspots and their relationship with climate change on Earth, we are now on an 'unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.'"

Faith in Global Warming is collapsing in formerly staunch Europe following increasingly severe winters which have now started continuing into spring. Christopher Booker explained in The Sunday Telegraph on April 27, 2013,


"Here in Britain, where we had our fifth freezing winter in a row, the Central England Temperature record - according to an expert analysis on the US science blog Watts Up With That - shows that in this century, average winter temperatures have dropped by 1.45C, more than twice as much as their rise between 1850 and 1999, and twice as much as the entire net rise in global temperatures recorded in the 20th century."

A news report from India (The Hindu April 22, 2013) stated, "March in Russia saw the harshest frosts in 50 years, with temperatures dropping to - 25° Celsius in central parts of the country and - 45° in the north. It was the coldest spring month in Moscow in half a century....Weathermen say spring is a full month behind schedule in Russia." The news report summarized,

"Russia is famous for its biting frosts but this year, abnormally icy weather also hit much of Europe, the United States, China and India. Record snowfalls brought Kiev, capital of Ukraine, to a standstill for several days in late March, closed roads across many parts of Britain, buried thousands of sheep beneath six-metre deep snowdrifts in Northern Ireland, and left more than 1,000,000 homes without electricity in Poland. British authorities said March was the second coldest in its records dating back to 1910. China experienced the severest winter weather in 30 years and New Delhi in January recorded the lowest temperature in 44 years."

Booker adds, "Last week it was reported that 3,318 places in the USA had recorded their lowest temperatures for this time of year since records began. Similar record cold was experienced by places in every province of Canada. So cold has the Russian winter been that Moscow had its deepest snowfall in 134 years of observations."

Britain's Met Office, an international cheerleading headquarters for global warming hysteria, did concede last December that there would be no further warming at least through 2017, which would make 20 years with no global warming. That reflects grudging recognition of the newly developing trends. But that reflects as well growing divergence between the reality of real world temperatures and the projections of the climate models at the foundation of the global warming alarmism of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since those models have never been validated, they are not science at this point, but just made up fantasies. That is why, "In the 12 years to 2011, 11 out of 12 [global temperature]forecasts [of the Met Office] were too high - and... none were colder than [resulted]," as BBC climate correspondent Paul Hudson wrote in January.

Global warming was never going to be the problem that the Lysenkoists who have brought down western science made it out to be. Human emissions of CO2 are only 4 to 5% of total global emissions, counting natural causes. Much was made of the total atmospheric concentration of CO2 exceeding 400 parts per million. But if you asked the daffy NBC correspondent who hysterically reported on that what portion of the atmosphere 400 parts per million is, she transparently wouldn't be able to tell you. One percent of the atmosphere would be 10,000 parts per million. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 deep in the geologic past were much, much greater than today, yet life survived, and we have no record of any of the catastrophes the hysterics have claimed. Maybe that is because the temperature impact of increased concentrations of CO2 declines logarithmically. That means there is a natural limit to how much increased CO2 can effectively warm the planet, which would be well before any of the supposed climate catastrophes the warming hysterics have tried to use to shut down capitalist prosperity.


Yet, just last week, there was Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson telling us, by way of attempting to tutor Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), Chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, "For the record, and for the umpteenth time, there is no 'great amount of uncertainty' about whether the planet is warming and why." If you can read, and you have gotten this far in my column, you know why Robinson's ignorance is just another Washington Post abuse of the First Amendment. Mr. Robinson, let me introduce you to the British Met Office, stalwart of Global Warming "science," such as it is, which has already publicly confessed that we are already three quarters through 20 years of No Global Warming!

Booker could have been writing about Robinson when he concluded his Sunday Telegraph commentary by writing, "Has there ever in history been such an almighty disconnect between observable reality and the delusions of a political class that is quite impervious to any rational discussion?"

But there is a fundamental problem with the temperature records from this contentious period, when climate science crashed into political science. The land based records, which have been under the control of global warming alarmists at the British Met Office and the Hadley Centre Climate Research Unit, and at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S., show much more warming during this period than the incorruptible satellite atmosphere temperature records. Those satellite records have been further confirmed by atmospheric weather balloons. But the land based records can be subject to tampering and falsification.

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Dora Hates You

More "journalism".


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"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

"There has been a lot of discussion of my recent paper in Nature Climate Change (Shindell, 2014). That study addressed a puzzle, namely that recent studies using the observed changes in Earth's surface temperature suggested climate sensitivity is likely towards the lower end of the estimated range. However, studies evaluating model performance on key observed processes and paleoclimate evidence suggest that the higher end of sensitivity is more likely, partially conflicting with the studies based on the recent transient observed warming. The new study shows that climate sensitivity to historical changes in the abundance of aerosol particles in the atmosphere is larger than the sensitivity to CO2, primarily because the aerosols are largely located near industrialized areas in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes where they trigger more rapid land responses and strong snow & ice feedbacks. Therefore studies based on observed warming have underestimated climate sensitivity as they did not account for the greater response to aerosol forcing, and multiple lines of evidence are now consistent in showing that climate sensitivity is in fact very unlikely to be at the low end of the range in recent estimates. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org


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"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

But that's a bit hard to understand, so instead we should just get our science news from a lawyer at the Heartland institute.

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"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

And yet they keep posting this lard as proof.

Is it really that hard for them to see that Heartland is a spokesperson for the oil and gas industry?



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I was right.