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Topic Title: Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade
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Created On: 07/30/2012 05:57 AM
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 07/30/2012 05:57 AM
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tom

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Was on Wunderground anyway looking at 99L (hurricane at 120hrs according to SHIPS model?)
and thought I'd bump Dr. Jeff's blog:

"The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

'Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.' "

http://www.wunderground.com/bl...ent.html?entrynum=2163

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 07/30/2012 05:59 AM
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TheLetterTBird

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No, Tom! You pulled a Tahoe!

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 07/30/2012 06:09 AM
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tom

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Did I?!?

Sorry T! You know I'm socially inept.
I was going to post on NPNR but knew
climate change was either politics or religion;
just a little unclear on which one...

tom

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 07/30/2012 06:13 AM
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TheLetterTBird

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See WGs thread.

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 07/30/2012 06:19 AM
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tom

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Doh!

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 07/30/2012 06:54 AM
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RiddleMe

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This is VERY clearly a global liberal conspiracy of all the world's scientists. The oil industry was simply getting tired of not cashing in on it because they don't make enough money already..

 07/30/2012 06:55 AM
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sirfir

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Several planets in our solar systaem have also been warming (Jupiter, Pluto, Mars, Triton also).  Is that also due to humans?

http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/odyssey/newsroom/pressreleases/20031208a.html  Mars may be going through a period of climate change, new findings from NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter suggest.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2002/pluto.html  "This is a very complex process, and we just don't know what is causing these effects" on Pluto's surface, Elliot said. "That's why you need to send a mission."

Poles are warming more while equatorial areas a warming at a meager rate.  I believe millions of years ago there was little to no ice on the planet with warmer temperatures overall. 

 

 

 07/30/2012 07:04 AM
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ponch

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Sirfir, Don't you think experts who have made it their life's work studying the climate would have taken that factor into consideration?

Take a drive through one of thousands of major cities on this earth. You'll understand that humans have an impact on the climate.
 07/30/2012 08:36 AM
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scombrid

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The surface station "skepticism" a al Wattsupwiththat's surfacestation.org has been a silly distraction for the most part.  Koch's funded this particular study because they thought Anthony Watts and his crowd were onto a smoking gun that would totally disprove that any warming has occurred.  The thing is, meteorologists and climitologists are and have been well aware of biases in surface stations due to station location.  You know that the station in city center will read warmer on most nights than stations in the country.  But the difference between those two stations isn't what you look at to determine whether or not there is a broader trend.  You look to see whether or not the two stations have parallel trends.  You average this across hundreds of stations and you can detect a signal amoung the noise, if the signal exists.  The BEST study confirms this.  I guess the BEST study was useful in that it is always good to recheck your calculations and revisit any assumptions.  But the motivation for funding this recheck was not born of a quest for accuracy.

Some of the skeptics may now acknowledge warming for a couple of days and just attribute any warming to natural causes (causes that they understand no better than they understood how mean temperature was calculated in the first place).  First big snow storm or cold spell and the pseudo-skeptic crowd will be right back to shouting "Where's your global warming now!". 



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 07/30/2012 10:13 AM
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sirfir

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Originally posted by: scombrid

It's still speculation, no matter how you or your scientists try and spin it. Global warming or not global warming..... again, the only truth is speculation.

 07/30/2012 10:17 AM
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worksuxgetsponsered

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Originally posted by: sirfir

Originally posted by: scombrid







It's still speculation, no matter how you or your scientists try and spin it. Global warming or not global warming..... again, the only truth is speculation.



The speculation is in the 'why', not that there is a temp increase.



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 07/30/2012 10:27 AM
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scombrid

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Originally posted by: worksuxgetsponsered  The speculation is in the 'why', not that there is a temp increase.

Not according to most of the AM radio stations, Wattsupwiththat blog, or a heck of a lot of the "where's your global warming now" posts on this and any other forum that you read every time there is cold weather somewhere. 

The contention that the recent increase in average temperature is a fabrication of a cabal of scientists in on the Al Gore conspiracy is why this latest study of the surface station data was conceived and funded in the first place.  Plenty of people on the right insist that warming has not occurred. 

Example:  last year Rush Limbaught argued that people believing in global warming was just a matter of perception:

“I have a theory about global warming and why people think it’s real. Go back, 30, 40 years when there was much less air conditioning in the country. When you didn’t have air conditioning and you left the house, it may have in fact gotten a little cooler out there because sometimes houses become hot boxes. Especially if you are on the second or third floor of a house in the summer time, and all you’ve got is open windows and window fan, or a servant fanning you with a piece of paper. When you walked outside no big deal still hot as hell, now 30, 40 years later all this air conditioning, and it’s a huge difference when you go outside. When you go outside now, my golly is it hot, global warming. It’s all about the baseline you’re using for comparison.”

 



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 07/30/2012 11:22 AM
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tpapablo

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Originally posted by: worksuxgetsponsered
Originally posted by: sirfir
Originally posted by: scombrid

It's still speculation, no matter how you or your scientists try and spin it. Global warming or not global warming..... again, the only truth is speculation.

The speculation is in the 'why', not that there is a temp increase.

There is some of both.



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 07/30/2012 11:27 AM
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sirfir

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Originally posted by: worksuxgetsponsered
Originally posted by: sirfir
Originally posted by: scombrid

It's still speculation, no matter how you or your scientists try and spin it. Global warming or not global warming..... again, the only truth is speculation.

The speculation is in the 'why', not that there is a temp increase.

Correct, in some cases.  There are many indiactions that our accuracy in temperatures due to digital products have a part in it and temperatures taken in and around cities where there is much concrete also adds to the increases, how small or large is the question. 

There is also factual evidence that the closer you get to the equator there is not much of an increase in temperature.  We know for a fact that millions of years ago there were long periods (much longer than man history) of virtually ice free poles (N & S) and the global temperatures were basically fairly equalized in all parts. 

 07/30/2012 11:42 AM
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FlapJackman

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sirfir

he knows not what he does



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"The Republican Party of Eisenhower and Rockefeller has vanished, and in its place has come a hard-right, anti-government, socially conservative, economically extreme-liberal party that somehow manages to convey a combination of callousness and nastiness almost as a matter of pride."

 07/30/2012 12:02 PM
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worksuxgetsponsered

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Without a doubt the earth has gone through warming and cooling trends, core samples tell us that. The question at least in my mind and I think other reasonable sceptics, is, is the current warming trend due to man made green house gases being released into the atmosphere or is it part of a nomal geological trend.

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 07/30/2012 12:15 PM
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sirfir

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Originally posted by: FlapJackman sirfir

he knows not what he does

Everything I've posted is what I've read from scientists in the past.  If y ou look up some of the information you'd be amazed.

 07/30/2012 12:18 PM
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FlapJackman

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sources



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"The Republican Party of Eisenhower and Rockefeller has vanished, and in its place has come a hard-right, anti-government, socially conservative, economically extreme-liberal party that somehow manages to convey a combination of callousness and nastiness almost as a matter of pride."

 07/30/2012 12:20 PM
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WG

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"scientists"

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malice may attack it,
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but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 07/30/2012 02:47 PM
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scombrid

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Funny.  I wrote in an earlier post:

Some of the skeptics may now acknowledge warming for a couple of days and just attribute any warming to natural causes (causes that they understand no better than they understood how mean temperature was calculated in the first place).  First big snow storm or cold spell and the pseudo-skeptic crowd will be right back to shouting "Where's your global warming now!". 
 

And then we get:


Originally posted by: sirfir

There are many indiactions that our accuracy in temperatures due to digital products have a part in it and temperatures taken in and around cities where there is much concrete also adds to the increases, how small or large is the question. 
There is also factual evidence that the closer you get to the equator there is not much of an increase in temperature. 
We know for a fact that millions of years ago there were long periods (much longer than man history) of virtually ice free poles (N & S) and the global temperatures were basically fairly equalized in all parts. 

No shit.  You think that climatologists are unaware of that?  Do you really think that the "libruls" on this forum who have advanced degrees in science are unaware of paleoclimate and natural cycles? 

Plus, you either didn't read or you read and failed to comprehend the B.E.S.T. study.  The trends in the warm biased urban stations parallel the trends in the areas that are not warm biased.  The amount of warming estimated in the last century is apparent with or without station in urban heat islands. 


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