Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Edited: 09/18/2019 at 04:45 AM by Central Floridave

Sunday (sep 22).....22.5N 69.0W ----> North of Dominican Republic SE of the Bahamas. Another potential swell maker.

Maybe this will finally be what we've been waiting for since Joaqin. Trying to not get my hopes up but the epic swell dry spell cant last forever either

Edited: 09/17/2019 at 08:38 AM by Julianuribe23

Another week for my wrist to heal.... hopefully it slows way down

European model (as seen at Windy) is showing a pretty wimpy storm

Model runs are all over the place.... which is usually the case until they establish a Center of circulation / pressure as a reference point.... the evening models SHOULD have a better idea...

NHC named Imelda in Western Gulf, thus TD Ten won't be named Imelda.

Just stay offshore, storm..

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

American Seinfeld is NOT amused

I definitely like that north curve.

But seems like it will be quite far off and weak. would we even see anything from Jerry?

Kramer is next storm....after Jerry?

Looks like Jerry is losing his mojo....

"While yesterday much of the guidance had Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even more." Weakening trend I don't like but slowing down I do. A hurricane Leslie scenario would be nice.

-------------------------
Heavy is sign of reliability

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA
show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum
flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values
near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb
overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite
imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the
far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend
of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt.

Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at
15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow
down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The
guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and
little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer
range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane
northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on
how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had
Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed
everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before
fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably
slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as
continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even
more.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast
is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in
the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the
aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to
impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken
or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a
little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent
weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much
track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

virtual buoy models show small long period swell for sunday thru tuesday. However, its probably going to get masked by the onshore wind swell.

Hopefully the local wind forecast is wrong for Jerry swell. But...welcome to life of a Florida surfer!

He can't go left...

At least every spot from OBX to Nova Scotia will be offshore this weekend. Happy for them



Edited: 09/20/2019 at 09:57 AM by Greensleeves

rut roh... looks like Jerry doesnt want to get off the stage yet...