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Topic Title: ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...
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Created On: 09/16/2017 01:56 PM
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 09/16/2017 01:56 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Satellite images indicate that the system located several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become much better organized
throughout the day. The low-level center of circulation is now
well defined, and banding features have become better established in
all quadrants. The initial wind speed is increased to 45 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. This makes the
system a tropical storm, Maria becomes the thirteenth named storm
in the Atlantic basin this season.

Maria is moving quickly westward at 17 kt on the south side of a
mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to remain in place but
weaken some, which should cause Maria to move west-northwestward at
a progressively slower pace through the forecast period. The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official track forecast
is closest to the HCCA model. This forecast takes the core of
Maria near the Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, and close to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in about 4 days.

The tropical storm is located within conducive environmental
conditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and over
warm 29 deg C SSTs. Since these conditions are not expected to
change much, steady or even rapid strengthening is likely during the
next 3 to 4 days. Slight weakening is predicted by the end of the
forecast period due to some land interaction and a slight increase
in wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is raised significantly
from the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles,
and additional watches will likely be issued tonight and Sunday.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
Sunday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
 09/16/2017 03:20 PM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Oh fooking goody!

-------------------------
Dora Hates You
 09/16/2017 04:17 PM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Current model tracks have her going into PR as a Major!!

The guy who owns the rental house 2-doors-down from us has a home on St. John. He says that Irma fucked them raw, worse than Hugo or Marilyn.

-------------------------
Dora Hates You
 09/16/2017 06:39 PM
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ww

Posts: 16088
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Farther along, Maria could "pinwheel" Jose into the NJ coast via the Fujiwara effect.  But that's foo far out to be an actual forecast.  

 09/16/2017 07:48 PM
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3rdworldlover

Posts: 22495
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

We have a long season ahead.
High octane heat in the Caribbean and GOMEX.
 09/17/2017 09:47 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Yeah for Football and Hurricane season starting at the same time! Survived Irma with lots of yard damage but the house stood. Pool screen gone. Oh well. Yeah for living in Florida. Its fun here, right?!?

I was a little itchy when I saw the long range models showing Marie skimming Florida. But, now doesn't show that anymore.

Hoping for recurve and out in the Atlantic for more great surf! RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE....
 09/17/2017 10:13 AM
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scostuart

Posts: 259
Joined Forum: 12/28/2007

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/



-------------------------

Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

 09/17/2017 02:46 PM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

A burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since the
last advisory and has continued to expand in size. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum
flight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt. The
crew also noted the formation of an open eyewall. Based on these
data and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt. Maria
is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it
will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the
Lesser Antilles. Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered
for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in
the NHC track forecast. The updated official forecast is slightly
south of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the
update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is
right along the previous track after 36 hours. This solution is
between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA
solution.


The aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation,
which could make it a prime candidate for significant
intensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs.
Rapid intensification indices are not especially high, but
nonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening and
potentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours. If that occurs,
some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall
replacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as
a major hurricane on days 3 through 5. Because of Maria's small
size the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to
the HWRF and HCCA models.


-------------------------
Dora Hates You
 09/17/2017 05:26 PM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Neat graphic linked by Mike's Weather Page.

https://www.facebook.com/mikes...55526680572367/?type=3

-------------------------
Dora Hates You
 09/17/2017 10:15 PM
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Long Beard

Posts: 4314
Joined Forum: 05/13/2007

waves for days! wish i was there : (

-------------------------
R I P Mama G.

@Salt.And.Savagery.Fishing

@Laserwolf.Laserwolf
 09/18/2017 03:28 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

It is likely that after this one, PR is really going to be Tits Up. Likely direct hit by a 140 MPH Major.

-------------------------
Dora Hates You
 09/18/2017 08:39 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is undergoing rapid intensification. The aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern
eyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt. In
addition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye
has fallen to 959 mb. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt,
making Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The small eye is also apparent in radar data
from Martinique.

The initial motion is 285/9, a little to the left of the previous
motion. Other than that, there is little change in either the
forecast philosophy or the forecast track. A high pressure area to
the north of Maria should maintain a general west-northwestward
motion for the next three days or so. After that, the high weakens,
which should allow the hurricane to turn gradually northwestward and
north-northwestward. The new forecast track is changed little from
the previous one, and it calls for Maria to move through the Leeward
Islands in 12-24 h, approach the Virgin Islands in about 36 h, then
cross Puerto Rico between 48-72 h. The new track lies to the left
of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
ECMWF.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.
This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h,
land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected
to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is
also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur
that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to
maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.
A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 60.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
 09/18/2017 08:55 AM
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Karma

Posts: 8028
Joined Forum: 01/26/2005

Farm house in the cross hairs again.

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
 09/18/2017 09:59 AM
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harrietdubman

Posts: 279
Joined Forum: 11/07/2015

the funderground railroad never stops



-------------------------

sneedeker

 09/18/2017 01:05 PM
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WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

Lot's more heat in these waters these days...

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
 09/18/2017 05:21 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
 09/18/2017 05:23 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Hurricane Maria Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Maria.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen. The aircraft
measured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an
estimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has
been increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall
cycles and land interaction.

No change was made to the previous track forecast, and the
extremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica
within the next hour or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0000Z 15.3N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
 09/18/2017 08:30 PM
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ww

Posts: 16088
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Landfall at Dominica, the first category 5 in its history.  

It could become Puerto Rico's first category 5 since the San Felipe Segundo/Okeechobee hurricane of 1928, the one that killed 2,500-3,000 people in Florida.  

 09/18/2017 08:35 PM
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3rdworldlover

Posts: 22495
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

This is terrible
 09/19/2017 07:14 AM
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RocketSurf

Posts: 645
Joined Forum: 03/20/2014

Originally posted by: Long Beard

waves for days! wish i was there : (


Ditto with a heavy heart....
FORUMS : Surfing : ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...

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