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Topic Title: Irma - stay or go?
Topic Summary: Models left, right and center
Created On: 09/07/2017 05:14 PM
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 09/07/2017 05:14 PM
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rc

Posts: 899
Joined: 01/02/2006

Who is staying and why?

Who is leaving and why?

Where do you go when the models vary so widely and no hotels from here to Atlanta?
 09/07/2017 05:36 PM
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palmtreeg

Posts: 1989
Joined: 04/27/2010

I feel ya brah!

Contemplating staying, O town, Sebastian mainland, or G Ville....

Avoiding being in NE quadrant is MO....

Good luck all, stay safe!

-------------------------
Brevard Surf Report
 09/07/2017 05:37 PM
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freesurfs

Posts: 3880
Joined: 07/24/2003

Irma's gonna drive like a drunkard coming up thru Florida


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... positioning and selection
 09/07/2017 05:59 PM
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rc

Posts: 899
Joined: 01/02/2006

Palmtreeg, your reply was your 1979th ... same year as the hellion David.

A storm that killed many in the carribean, then ricketed along Florida's coastline. Sound familiar?

We are trying to stay safe, but no one knows the answer other than complete abandonment of our homes, which is hard to do.

Trying to rationalize staying, thinking of the loss of power on the road in a strange place versus being at home under the same conditions.

There is really no place to run considering it could be east or west of us. If we knew, the decision would be easier. No hotels from here to Atlanta.

Freesurfs: you've seen what I have seen and this is crazy. No words to describe the confusion. What are you doing?
 09/07/2017 06:19 PM
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DaveFL76

Posts: 2737
Joined: 08/16/2003

I'm staying beachside. Poured concrete house, built by a contractor for himself and his family, so I feel pretty safe. More than that, I have 2 businesses beachside that I'd like to be available to just after the storm if I can minimize losses. Cross the bridge and evacuate and you just don't know when you'll be allowed back. The wife and kid are safe and sound visiting relatives in Alabama.
 09/07/2017 06:23 PM
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Bamboo

Posts: 4897
Joined: 07/24/2003

This is a tough one.  Hurricane Floyd and Mathew were coming at us from the water and we were the target (but saved at the last moment in both cases) so those were easy decisions to leave.  Irma is rolling up the middle like a bowling ball.  Without going to Alabama, I'm not sure there is any "for sure" safe place.  

Right now we plan on hunkering down, house is strong,  we are provisioned up, and I'm sure we would be safe enough, but possibly a hairy ride.   But dang...hate to leave just to go someplace that sucks just as bad after dealing with all the mess driving.  Wouldn't mind flying out, but then that has its own set of hassles.  

 As long as it isn't bullseye-ing on CB/MI will probably stay.  

Looking forward to tomorrow's updates  (I think!!).



-------------------------

It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.

 09/07/2017 06:30 PM
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sw

Posts: 811
Joined: 10/13/2005

As far as the "mandatory" evacuation in Cocoa Beach is concerned, this is our first time possibly staying through at least part of the evacuation period (may wait till Saturday evening to see how things progress before heading to family in mainland Sebastian). Will any authority types give me any hassle if I'm seen out and driving around beachside on Saturday?
 09/07/2017 06:31 PM
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paddleout

Posts: 11527
Joined: 07/31/2003



I have reservations in Orlando, and also in Pensacola. I have to cancel before midnight if I dont want to get hit with a $150 cancellation fee.

Right now the GFS model shows fairly weak wind in Orlando (40kt or so) as the max. But that could change. So not sure if I want to give up the Pensacola rez- but DAMN an 8 hr drive?? that seems like too much.

My worst case scenario is the power goes out at the stupid Fairfield Inn at Orlando and we are stuck in a hotbox with a whole bunch of other people in the flippin DARK.. becuase it will be 1AM when that goes down.

ugh..

I think I'm gonna cancel Pensacola though.. think I should?

I'm definitely not staying beachside.. too much uncertainty and hurricane fuel nearby for me to feel OK with this one.

-------------------------
Florida Plant Nursery Heliconia Rainbow Eucalyptus
Exotica Tropicals
Plant Nursery
Brevard Florida
 09/07/2017 06:34 PM
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MikeNeptune

Posts: 109
Joined: 07/31/2017

Stay safe everyone.  



-------------------------

See y’all next summer. 

 09/07/2017 06:41 PM
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paddleout

Posts: 11527
Joined: 07/31/2003

Here is an interesting image from the GFS model- note how the eye is just west of the Cape, yet the winds over land are not nearly as powerful as those on the coast and over water.

Maybe inland is the best call?



-------------------------
Florida Plant Nursery Heliconia Rainbow Eucalyptus
Exotica Tropicals
Plant Nursery
Brevard Florida
 09/07/2017 06:42 PM
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rc

Posts: 899
Joined: 01/02/2006

A friend who lives in Rockledge told me this morning "you are smart and will make the right decision".

I felt like I was Luke Skywalker and Yoda was giving me advice.

Remember how confused young Luke was in that scene?

Yeah, that's us right now.
 09/07/2017 06:46 PM
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pumphouse

Posts: 747
Joined: 07/23/2003

rc, that is great! North Palm Beach County, but inland a few miles. We are riding this thing out!

-------------------------
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw
 09/07/2017 06:47 PM
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oceanstreet

Posts: 17
Joined: 01/29/2015

Staying. Crib over the bridge, with a weakening hurricane from down south. No power for sure very soon. 



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www.mytwistedsummer.wordpress.com
 09/07/2017 07:15 PM
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rc

Posts: 899
Joined: 01/02/2006

After listening and analyzing Levi's Thursday broadcast, I'm ready to run. Listen carefully why it is predicted to do what they say and you will drop what you are doing and split.

Draw this on a map and you have to go to Missisippi, Arkansas, NE North Carolina, Virginia, etc., but then after the 5 day does it chase you into flood waters?

No reason to panic, but every reason to run?

Levi 9/7
 09/07/2017 07:21 PM
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Cole

Posts: 32140
Joined: 07/22/2003

Water is the only thing that is truly dangerous on a big scale. Sure, tornadoes are a possibility, but tidal surge and flooding are the danger.

Paddleout's pic of the wind speeds is interesting, I never realized how much land obstructs wind.

-------------------------
Trump/Putin 2016!
 09/07/2017 07:33 PM
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rc

Posts: 899
Joined: 01/02/2006

Levi speaks of a water event of biblical proportions.
I actually got scared, really scared, for the first time on this one.
Been here since '65 and this feels like the big one.
Someone talk this down from it's peak, but Levi makes a compelling argument.
 09/07/2017 07:40 PM
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pompano

Posts: 5530
Joined: 01/06/2005

torn.  only a block in and there is park at the end of my street so water will flow freely from the ocean if we get cat 3 E winds for any sustained period.  I have a fully poured safe room with metal door and a poured east wall, but my roof shingles will start to go at > 120mph.  Already have seen that.  Add two older ladies in the mix to care for and I'm really hoping it chews up the middle of the state and the winds drop and we will have less storm surge to contend with.  I just now returned from California.  I-95 N and 528 W were solid headlights.  

 09/07/2017 07:45 PM
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paddleout

Posts: 11527
Joined: 07/31/2003

OK I'll talk it down a little-

check out this WU track:



(EDIT: above image has updated itself to current forecast)

note you will see they have the storm still a CAT4 all the way up to like Delray Beach after a CAT4 landfall.

I am no meteorologist, but that would suprise me. That's alot of land it would have to move over- I hate to say it, but I'll believe it is a CAT4 as far north as Delray when I actually see it.. I think it will be a CAT 3 by then. And possibly a CAT 2 by Brevard if it stays over land.

That is, unless I'm missing something, like the Everglades can power a hurricane as well as the ocean..

but looks at these two historical charts from Frances and Jeanne and see how fast they dropped once the storms made landfall.








but then theres this:





-------------------------
Florida Plant Nursery Heliconia Rainbow Eucalyptus
Exotica Tropicals
Plant Nursery
Brevard Florida


Edited: 09/08/2017 at 03:50 AM by paddleout
 09/07/2017 07:54 PM
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puinsai

Posts: 47
Joined: 09/08/2011

Don't forget about David in 1979. Maybe someone with tech skills can post its track image. 

 09/07/2017 08:01 PM
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paddleout

Posts: 11527
Joined: 07/31/2003

Here you go:

This one is scary- it actually went UP- was it half over water?




-------------------------
Florida Plant Nursery Heliconia Rainbow Eucalyptus
Exotica Tropicals
Plant Nursery
Brevard Florida
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