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Topic Title: Irma?
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Created On: 08/25/2017 01:13 PM
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 08/25/2017 01:13 PM
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ww

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National Hurricane Center puts development probability for the blob of rain over us at only 50%, but it looks like it might run up the coast, close to the Outer Banks.  If so, looks worthless in terms of wave potential.  For those with access, Washington Post's Weather Gang has an assessment.

 08/25/2017 01:47 PM
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Central Floridave

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Been watching the model updates. Hoping it doesn't hug the coast too much. The virtual buoys predictions for next week have been on a downward tick every model run. But, here is hoping we do get a NE swell kicked back at us. We deserve it. Right?
 08/25/2017 03:02 PM
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daner

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Yea it's gone from wave s for days to days until waves. FL fkd again. East coast anyway.

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 08/25/2017 03:56 PM
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dingpatch

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Irma Gunch, Modine's sister. I was wondering what the circulation over us was.
 08/26/2017 10:11 PM
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SurferMic

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For those with cash to burn $200.00 will get you to Jersey on Spirit (no board , backpack w/ wetsuit stuffed under seat) ...the rest....well....it is good to know someone who lives at the "Shore"...watching...could be done for min cost..the shoobie season is winding down..

 



Edited: 08/26/2017 at 10:24 PM by SurferMic
 08/26/2017 11:54 PM
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ww

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Interesting rain forecast map.  A lot of NC is evidently having a severe drought, so it'll rain like crazy offshore.  Cold front with low pressure system moving north from Florida.  

Fly to Islip?

 

 

 08/27/2017 03:47 AM
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freesurfs

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Daner ... right on - unfortunately

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 08/28/2017 01:09 AM
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ww

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Long Island, Rhode Island, NJ.  NHC.

 

 08/28/2017 06:46 AM
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Plan B

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meh, the last one that was a full on Cane gave them only one day of surf..... this thing weaker + moving faster = don't blink or you may miss the "swell"

we have some waves here today.  waiting for tide to fill in and wind to rotate more



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 08/28/2017 08:27 AM
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ncsurf

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Originally posted by: ww Interesting rain forecast map.  A lot of NC is evidently having a severe drought, so it'll rain like crazy offshore.  Cold front with low pressure system moving north from Florida.  

 

Fly to Islip?

No drought on the Outer Banks...been raining basically every day here this summer.

 08/28/2017 11:01 AM
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Plan B

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got fun as the tide filled in like I hoped



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 08/28/2017 10:37 PM
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ww

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Great day for Jax and presumably St. Aug.  Now to see about the prospective Julia.

 08/29/2017 07:38 AM
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Central Floridave

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virtual buoys show something from NE friday and Saturday. Could we get so lucky of having a NE swell for a 3 day weekend...(hope not cursing it)....


Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

The disturbance has developed a center that has been trackable
this evening though it is still not well-defined, since it
appears to be considerably elongated northeast-southwest. The
disturbance continues to display very cold, but extremely asymmetric
deep convection with all of the thunderstorm activity east of the
center due to strong vertical shear. Moreover, the convection is
showing no identifiable banding features. So the system is not yet
a tropical cyclone. Regardless of the label we use to describe this
hybrid system, maximum winds are around 35 kt based upon a Dvorak
classification from TAFB and observed winds just below that from
the NDBC Buoy 41013.

The initial motion of the disturbance is northeast at a faster rate
of about 10 kt. Continued acceleration is expected during the next
couple of days as a mid- to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes
moves closer to the system. The NHC forecast track takes the
disturbance across the North Carolina coastline today. By tonight,
the cyclone is forecast to move offshore and accelerate over the
Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope and is not substantially
changed from the previous advisory.

Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind
shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this
disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a
coin flip. Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-
force winds across portions of North Carolina are likely today even
if the system does not become a tropical cyclone. The system is
expected to become extratropical in 24 hours or less when it
interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough.
Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is forecast
for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing. No significant
change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 24 to 120 h are
based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 33.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1800Z 35.4N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z 39.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0600Z 41.0N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0600Z 44.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 55.0N 19.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 08/30/2017 05:25 AM
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Central Floridave

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It is over open water now. Now we wait. Checking the buoys off the Northeast and the waters are being churned up.

Virtual buoys keep it small NE into the 3 day weekend. But, maybe they are wrong. Come on NE swell for the 3 day weekend!

 08/31/2017 04:45 AM
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Central Floridave

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Looking at those buoys to the North of us. South Hatty, etc. NE swell in the water!
 08/31/2017 05:48 AM
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tom

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Irma gonna get some. You too!

 08/31/2017 08:02 AM
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frothing321

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Joined: 01/29/2017

Irma is either the next Joaquin or the next Andrew :0

 08/31/2017 08:53 AM
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jwieland

Posts: 448
Joined: 05/21/2009

Irma now a cat 2.

 

Some model tracks have recurve

but the more reliable euro keeps it on a collision course for us, or south of Florida. Chances are it'll come right for us because I leave for Peru to surf the longest left in the world on Tuesday. Which if this thing even threatens us, work cancells my trip

 

I'm getting a little disgruntled lol. Last year the day I was supposed to surf steamer lane I got called back because of Matthew. The timing if this thing is impeccable



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Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida


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 08/31/2017 09:07 AM
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Central Floridave

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fyi, you know this already, but never plan any going away ventures in the month of September.
 08/31/2017 09:22 AM
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jwieland

Posts: 448
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Originally posted by: Central Floridave fyi, you know this already, but never plan any going away ventures in the month of September.

I know I know lol....Sometimes I don't have a choice when I'm going with a group or it's for an event like a wedding or bday ...



-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida


Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman

https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/



Edited: 08/31/2017 at 09:41 AM by jwieland
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