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Topic Title: Atlantic Subtropical depression 1
Topic Summary: Pretty far away but still newsworthy
Created On: 04/19/2017 07:48 AM
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 04/19/2017 07:48 AM
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asurferscomposition

Posts: 127
Joined: 02/27/2017

NHC website



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asurferscomposition.com

 04/19/2017 07:49 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 46229
Joined: 07/22/2003

70 percent chance! That is a looooong way away for sure.

On another note, it seems summer has returned. It feels like the humidity has really jumped up the past couple of days.

 04/19/2017 08:11 AM
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long_flaco1

Posts: 1236
Joined: 09/25/2003

KONA!!!

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SK8 AND DESTROY
 04/19/2017 08:36 AM
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miker

Posts: 5233
Joined: 04/05/2010

Yes hotter earlier and longer. 5 years in a row of all time record temps
 04/19/2017 10:48 AM
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daner

Posts: 7230
Joined: 04/20/2004

Sub Tropical Depression 1 has formed in the central Atlantic. No Threat to Land.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 04/19/2017 12:01 PM
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WG

Posts: 34323
Joined: 03/10/2005

Is that really even a swell maker?

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"We live in a land made of ideals, not blood and soil."
 04/19/2017 12:43 PM
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Zeus

Posts: 1106
Joined: 07/25/2003

Just a few days ago it looked like a fairly vigorous circulation on Oceanweather.com and is probably where the long period readings on 41116 are coming from now.  Although not as vigorous anymore, models show it moving west slightly and briefly tighening isobars with the high pressure to its west.  Not real impressive but better than nothing

 04/20/2017 02:16 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 46229
Joined: 07/22/2003

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
500 PM AST Thu Apr 20 2017

...RARE APRIL TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 42.0W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 42.0 West. Arlene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Arlene is forecast to become absorbed by a large extratropical low
and dissipate on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
 04/20/2017 02:17 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 46229
Joined: 07/22/2003

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
500 PM AST Thu Apr 20 2017

I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting
career. Unexpectedly, the subtropical cyclone became a tropical
depression this morning, and then it intensified to a tropical
storm. This intensity estimate is based on the cloud pattern
presentation on satellite imagery which shows moderate thunderstorm
activity surrounding an eye-type feature, and a convective ring in
microwave imagery. Initial intensity is set at 40 kt, although
estimates from TAFB suggest that the winds could have reached 45 kt
around 1800 UTC. Since that time, the cloud pattern has deteriorated
somewhat and winds probably have diminished. Despite the
intensification, Arlene is still forecast by all global models to
become absorbed by a nearby developing extratropical cyclone on
Friday.

Arlene is moving toward the west-northwest at 22 kt, while well
embedded in the fast flow surrounding the extratropical low. This
general motion around the low is expected until dissipation on
Friday.

Tropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second
one observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be
noted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible
to detect prior to the weather satellite era.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 37.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 38.7N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
 04/21/2017 03:59 AM
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daner

Posts: 7230
Joined: 04/20/2004

Don't mess with mother nature.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 04/21/2017 08:03 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 46229
Joined: 07/22/2003

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017
1100 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

...ARLENE MERGES WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 49.9W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Arlene was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.9 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 23 mph
(37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until
dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
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