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Topic Title: Hurricane wave train?
Topic Summary: Finally??
Created On: 08/22/2016 05:59 AM
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 08/23/2016 05:19 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

FROM: Central Florida Hurricane

Most striking about the 8/23 0z runs, is that there is quite a lot of convergence... However, the GFS and GFDL in particular may have initialized 99L too weakly, for as of 0700z, the system is coming together better than they seem to have advertised.

The trend of overnight improvement has actually been going on for several moons now, but tonight it finally looks to be "catching" enough that it just might stick. Another 6-18 hours should tell, and also, Recon is set to fly in today.

In the very near term, it looks as if shear over 99L is and will possibly continue to be relaxing, as troughiness and associated 20+ knots of westerly shear brushes by to its north and east. Afterwards, as the Low appears to be pulling just north of due west at a good clip, it could easily run into a pocket of high net-effective westerly shear by mid-week, which would argue for some impairment if it lasts too long. However, as by this time 99L may already be a tropical cyclone, the damage may be insufficient to prevent it continuing westward to northwestward (depending) as a named storm, or stronger (Lounge material at this point, but entirely plausible).

It is late in the week that the models are joining up together in remarkable fashion, for what is a somewhat convoluted pattern. That there is such unanimity given the relative complexity is reason to take note. Here is the 00Z breakdown:

GFS: High pressure builds in behind weak troffiness off east coast sending the remnant circulation of Fiona across central Florida, and pulling up a weak intensity open wave 99L by the hand into the Bahamas, and imparting extra vorticity in the process. There 99L becomes a TD... by next Thursday.
Odds: Seems unlikely owing to the recent and current organizational trends with 99L, and the forward speed of both systems.

ECMWF: Like the GFS, the Euro sends the remnant Fiona across Florida (more north), and grabs 99L. However, this happens both sooner, and with an initially stronger 99L wave. In this scenario, 99L becomes a TD this coming Saturday night, crossing south Florida Sunday night into Monday as a strong TS, runs up the west coast as a strong hurricane, is then picked up by a passing trof and now crosses north Florida from the west as a modest hurricane next Wednesday the 31st, running up the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, before being ejected northeast back out to sea as an intensifying Cat 2+ over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Thursday Sept 1st.
Odds:This looks more reliable than the GFS run above it. Plus, this is the ECMWF. However, all the usual disclaimers apply. Especially that far out!

CMC: Like the ECMWF, the Canadian starts out with a somewhat healthier 99L, and also retains a somewhat more coherent Fiona (or remnant Fiona). The two meet up well north of the Bahamas this coming Friday night, with x-Fiona imparting substantial additional vorticity into 99L, with 99L becoming a solid TS that is driven into Georgia, and then running rapidly inland up the east coast until merging with a passing trof on the 31st while over Virginia.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and perhaps as plausible as the ECMWF run - the main caveat being that this is the CMC, and also all the usual disclaimers apply this far out!

HWRF: Starting with a somewhat stronger 99L than the GFS, but not as much as either the ECMWF or CMC, but with a far more resilient TD Fiona, the 0z HWRF develops 99L into a TD just north of Puerto Rico this Wednesday afternoon, intensifying into a strong TS and then minimal hurricane just north of the easternmost Bahamas this Friday night, and then rapidly intensifying into a Major Hurricane while turning left (west) into the westernmost Bahamas this Saturday night.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and unfortunately, only slightly less possible than either the ECMWF or CMC's less bullish alternatives; definitely within the realm, so keep alert. Usual disclaimers apply!!

GFDL: The GFDL seems to have had difficulty resolving nuances with 99L all along, and unsurprisingly looks to be initializing this run with an amorphous and very broad low, which is arguably too weak for consideration, at all. In the interest of sharing it however, this model's run tries to develop 99L into a TD in the north-easternmost Caribbean this Wednesday, opens back up into a wave as it passes over the DR (likely due to a weak system traversing brutal terrain), and then by this Sunday the open wave of the former TD teams up with remnants of former Fiona to create a large, amorphous blob of wet and bluster weather off the southeast coast.
Odds: Looks even less likely than the GFS, but should 99L not "stick" and pull it off within the next 36 hours, I would start to give both the GFDL and GFS some credence, despite their overly weak initializations.



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 08/23/2016 05:35 AM
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Plan B

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Ha, just logged on to post that graphic 

LOTS of variables at play, but things can get crazy.......  the one constant seems to be hard onshores while we have multiple sizeable groundswells......  I may cry

If that graphic is correct, that is the ideal location for a macker storm to send us well overhead SE lines pushin up the beach (Bertha was in that same location but without the strong highpressure / onshores)

but 945 MB..... that's a STRONG cane

stay tuned kiddies

 08/23/2016 06:28 AM
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dingpatch

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The HWRF model is looking like we could get Butt F'd by 99L (Hermine)!!!!!!

Latest from Central Florida Hurricane

Morning Model runs (6z):

The GFS still shows nothing really developing with 99L, actually takes the remnants of Fiona west toward Florida and merges that and 99L together while moving over Florida as a rainmaker (no real development). And doesn't organize it in the Gulf. This scenario seems unlikely since it possibly is overdoing Fiona. The ridge is strong in this run though, pushing anything to the west.

The HWRF is only out to 72 hours at the time I wrote this, and it's showing it starting to organize, only noticible different so far from the last run is that it's slightly faster than before.
Saturday (108 hours out) it is approaching/at major hurricane status just east of the Central Bahamas.

The final frame of the HRWF (Sunday morning) has it moving generally WNW (turning more toward due west) just along the northern edge of Abaco island in the Bahamas winds are around 135MPH. It's a bit more northwest than the prior run, but similar strength.

The atmosphere around it in this forecast is very favorable for development, ridging is strong too, likely will get a bit more north then hard west looking at it. The ridge setup in this forecast is one we haven't seen with a hurricane/storm in a long while last one similar is the setup from 2004 that drove Frances/Jeanne westward. (not implying it will do this, since this is just a model forecast.) At this point i'm hoping Fiona interferes more like the GFS implied and keeps this system weak. Also until we actually have a formed system, keep in mind we are just looking for trends. Right now there are good trends (GFS) and bad trends (Euro and especially HWRF)

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 08/23/2016 07:26 AM
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surferKev07

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I saw the blocking high possibly setting up too, and that freaks me out. I lived in Jupiter during Frances-Jeanne-Wilma and it sucked.
 08/23/2016 07:37 AM
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Plan B

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Yes, blocking high = onshore winds + carnage

 

 

 08/23/2016 07:54 AM
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MyCatSprays

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99L smells alot like Andrew!!!



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 08/23/2016 11:10 AM
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stashy4

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 08/23/2016 11:18 AM
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purefunk

Posts: 1560
Joined Forum: 09/11/2003

Invest 99 is worth keeping an eye.  Every model is putting it dangerously close to us.

 



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 08/23/2016 12:32 PM
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stokedpanda

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Originally posted by: MyCatSprays

99L smells alot like Andrew!!!





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 08/23/2016 12:43 PM
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HBrandNSB

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99L reminds me of Erika last year. The one that was supposed to hit Florida and never organized and died around PR/Hispaniola.
Not time to start panicking yet.
 08/23/2016 01:32 PM
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purefunk

Posts: 1560
Joined Forum: 09/11/2003

Originally posted by: HBrandNSB 99L reminds me of Erika last year. The one that was supposed to hit Florida and never organized and died around PR/Hispaniola. Not time to start panicking yet.

True. I just don't like seeing all the models so close in agreement.  Gives me a reminder to go through my checklist.

 



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 08/23/2016 01:54 PM
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MyCatSprays

Posts: 393
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Actually, 99L looks alot more like Katrina did, than Erika, but either way, its a focal point for Florida fo shizzle!!!



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 08/23/2016 03:45 PM
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ww

Posts: 16088
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Not the best source, but Five Thirty Eight has a story on Hermine, a.k.a. Invest 99L

 08/23/2016 05:16 PM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: purefunk True. I just don't like seeing all the models so close in agreement.

 

 

 

 

they're not though....... that's the headscratcher

 

either way, we'll prob get fuct by winds, tides or both, but just the CHANCE of some juice has me in a better mood.

 08/24/2016 04:40 AM
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KP

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Choppy small waves







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 08/24/2016 04:55 AM
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wtf

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Originally posted by: ww

Not the best source, but Five">http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea...arting-to-worry/">Five Thirty Eight has a story on Hermine, a.k.a. Invest 99L



That is actually a very fine source. Eric Holthaus is a respected met.



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 08/24/2016 06:24 AM
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Plan B

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Latest GFS model run = LOLOLOLOLOL 

 08/24/2016 06:36 AM
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Karma

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I hear LA could use the rain.



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 08/24/2016 07:28 AM
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HBrandNSB

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99L still not organized very well and being sheared.
 08/24/2016 07:30 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
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Originally posted by: Karma I hear LA could use the rain.

 

You just gave yourself some bad karma

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