TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave centered about 500
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming
better organized. Conditions appear to be favorable for a tropical
depression to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves toward the west-northwest and then northwest toward the
open waters of the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

YEP....ITS TIME ....

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Dora Hates You

of course the models that put it in our better swell window are some of the least reliable of the bunch.

so glad that i just picked up my board last night from being repaired

#StokedToSurf

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hey, i don't know if you read this yet ----------> I <3 16streets.com

thank you Sean O'hare

Delicious beer comes from here

ugh!! Thats it ! you just lowered our chances of a good swell! Thanks a lot !!

Only way to fix this Rick is if you take you and your "repared" board to CR or some other far away place then the storm will be back on track for FLorida swell.

Nothing to see here if/when Fiona is named it will spin N/NW and way out of our swell window...someone please go to Bermuda and score "Tucks".  Bring on the next one ...Gaston, the shortboard is getting dusty.

Could make for a worthy Hatteras run!?

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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life

by Plan B

For you forecast guru's, which one of these like 15 models would you say has had the best track record in the past lets say 5 years? I'm thought it was the UKM deal a few years back but recently it's seemed to be NOT the best\most reliable one. lol

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SK8 AND DESTROY

Oh no! Possible storms! Quick man the haarp weapon!

nothing to see here folks, move along. i am beginning to think we should just start hoping for the first cold front and do other stuff for another month. these over-blown trade swell forecasts are getting old.

I'm NO meterologist, but I'd say the GFDL, GFS and Euro (ECWMF? the one with a long accronym )  are prob top 3... Some are better longterm some are better short term....... I think UKmet was good a ways out but not good shortterm. 

Been awhile since there's been enough canes worth paying attention to. I don't follow as closely as I used to, as it usually just ends in Charlie Brown esque disappointment

 

I will say when one is WAY different than the others, I prob wouldn't bank on that.

Its gonna be a gnarly fucking October!!! This one, 98L, is just a boib shot to get you armchair forcasters jonsing, spouting, & stroking!!! From 09/10 thru 11/01 is gonna guff & someone on the East Coast is gonna take a thumper on the head, but as of now, this intense Bermuda high will have us flat thru Labor Day!!!   Col. SV

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Tubes, Boobs, & Doobs!!!

Are you the same big rick from the news junkie?

North turn already happening

yes, and the same one who took a bullet like a champ downtown a few years ago

 

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Make the Ocean great again.  Ban all Bodyboarders

Hah I've heard him on there a few times and always wondered if it was the same dude. Can we hear THAT story?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become more concentrated and better organized during the past
several hours. If this development trend continues, advisories
would be initiated on a tropical depression tonight or Wednesday.
This system is expected to move generally northwestward over the
open waters of the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

And, , , , as we all should know, , , , the models "grip" on the track((s) is total BS until the supposed system gets better organized.

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Dora Hates You

Were not getting waves from 98L you jonsers!!!

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Tubes, Boobs, & Doobs!!!