I hung out with Slates last night.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Sean or Skippy? lol

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

Not to take credit away from cfldave because he does a great job. But cflsurf.com actually belongs to Ross. Or at least the forecast does at the top.

And yes. this is a dead horse subject but hypecaster is not even the glass half full site, it's the glass over flowing site. And cflsurf is the glass is "half way filled but half way empty" site. I definitely appreciate ross' report and forecast because I usually don't have the time to go chasing WC's secret spots down (if they exist).



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I type on fone 99% of time. Let the typos slyde. Thanks

6:00 AM EDT 30 July 2016 Update
When a tropical wave defies difficult odds - and is still tracking at a relatively low latitude upon approach to the islands - this is often the hallmark of a wave that bears watching. Such is the case with Invest 97L. Despite what would normally be an almost insurmountable double whammy of dry air and rapid forward movement, this disturbance has both improved internals further overnight Friday, and added some more meat on its bones. As such, we now have added a dedicated Lounge for Invest 97L (Here: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge).

Meanwhile, out the far eastern Atlantic, Invest 96L is also looking better. Traveling quite a bit slower, we will have plenty of time to watch this one, but in the near-term those in the Caribbean may now want to pay closer attention for the possibility of further development with 97L.



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Dora Hates You

I appreciate everyone that puts forth a surf report/forecast. I'm just in it to surf more and having all these resources is extremely awesome!

I've been a surfer pre-internet days and it was horrible to get an accurate vizzie/report/forecast. Especially when I lived in Orlando going to UCF in the 80s with no car.

Thus, everyone rocks in my opinion. hypesters to Debbie-Downers.

If anything all the blabbing is entertainment until we do actually get a swell. (we need rain really bad also)...

Off to look at the weather stuff! Rock On!

As with Central Floridave I read and value all the reports, hype and speculations.


And, ... The Wavecaster is back.


Lets get it going !!
( DaBuh.com )








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Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

If wave caster is glass overflowing what does that make DaBuh? Thanks to all forecasters!

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Do you know what Wubba-LubbA-Dub-Dub means in BirdPerson language?

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Dora Hates You

That makes Dabuh "just one more and then we'll go."

And pass me dat keewwwl-aid I shohoho is thirsty!!!

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"Don't count the days, make the days count." -Ali
#rydyrstrong

speak'n of thirsty- it shohoho has been cohohold out 'dere during m'daily dips. bbrrr~~  que pasa?! sw updwellink?

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ola ~

Would be worthwhile to check NHC and other forecasters on that oceanic heat content.  There's a tendency for storms to form south of Cuba early and late in the season.  

 

Amen brother and we all apprechiate what is done to keep this site up... always fun to chat about potential swells

 

 

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Hey surferclimber, what is SHF5?

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"If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!"

It is the 120hr SHIFOR. IMO .... SHIFOR always seems to be on the extreme end of the various forecasting models.



Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) Model

As is evident by its name, SHIFOR is a statistical intensity prediction model. Similar to the CLIPER track guidance model, the SHIFOR model uses several climatological and persistence parameters to predict the future intensity of the storm at 12-hr periods out to 72 hr. The predictor variables include: (1) Julian day; (2) current storm intensity; (3) intensity change during past 12 hr; (4) initial storm latitude and longitude; and (5) zonal (east-west) and meridional (north-south) component of the storm motion. The original SHIFOR equations were developed using data from all historic storms during the period 1900-1972 that were at least 30 nautical miles from land. The new SHIFOR5 equations are based on the historic tropical cyclones from 1967-1999 that, at a minimum, intensified into tropical storms.

Various combinations of the primary parameters were also offered to the multiple regression procedure. In order to maintain continuity, parameters that were selected for inclusion in the prediction equation at one particular forecast time were given preference in the selection for the subsequent forecast time.

Between five and eight predictor terms are included in each equation; most of which are second order products of the seven primary predictors listed above. The most important terms are the current intensity, the 12 hr intensity change, the Julian day and the current storm position. Unlike CLIPER, different predictors may appear in the equations for each lead time. Equations based on storms from throughout the Atlantic, Carribean and Gulf of Mexico are used, since they out-performed those stratified by basin.



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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

96L is gone, , , , ,

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Dora Hates You

Thanks LBLarry, but I already know what SHF5 is...I was asking surferclimber.

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"If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!"

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Salsa Brava!

I've surfed Salsa Brava before. What a killer wave!

That system in the Caribbean looks like it is getting it's act together !