http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Stay safe - know your limits and most importantly PRAY that tehese storms bring us some good swell but no damage to proerty lives...

 

 

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

 

LOL.... oh c'mon.....

but don't worry, i just replaced the auto-inflate CO2 catrigges in my Geofrey the Giraffe water wings in case that blob of clouds gives us significant surf in 2 weeks

in the meantime, I'm more focused on trying not to get killed by some dumb 20 yr old kid driving a car while looking for pokemon.

Safety first!

So are you stoked?

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

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Dora Hates You

Wo! Just got a body rush! Feel sorta tingly!

"driving a car while looking for pokemon"

LOL, the pokemon zombie apocalypse has begun...

 

LOL...  I think that quote was more directed towards the flock of "surfers" that will show up on main swell day 1, barley survie the paddle then imitate buoys!

 

But on a more "prediction" serious note all signs seem to be pointing to well above average season The site

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/satl.html

is saying our ocean temprature is 6 degress ( or 7.5% ) above the average... of course there's a lot more to it than just temp - dry air, shear etc etc 

 

So to you I wish you find the bigest wave you have ever ridden in FLa, and get super stoked from a fun ride / session...  I remember mine a solid NEster a few winters back - the AI swell - something like 14-16'  @ 16 seconds  

 

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Edited: 07/29/2016 at 01:35 PM by surferclimber

Mine was 12 foot Sunset Beach , but that was a long time ago. Lately more like thigh high Cocoa

If you look at the wave models, or weather models, they do not show any signs of tropical development for 180 hours. I'm curious what NHC sees that the models don't.

Maybe the NHC dudes are just getting bored of forecasting nothing and wanting to generate hype:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven

I'm with CFLDave. It will never happen.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

LOL, National Hurricane Center is trolling 2ndlight forums....trying to give us hope...rain and surf does not exist anymore in East Central Florida...

way to be dave the downer.....

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Specializing in sarcasm and condescending rhetoric since 1971.

Fine print from a surfing statitscian - the error for time > 120 hours is 100% LOL

 

 

 

 

 

I geuss they see "potential" and it's their job to speculate....But I always go back to the old fact that we as humans can not predict the future. For example these are just output of specific NWS's model "GFS model," and while a few other models are showing something - including ECMWF which is good one -  IMHO it's still way wayyyy to far out to tell anything real. Maybe we get a hint that this storm is looking to stay south??? Also, gotta keep in mind the data we get from such distant storms is very limited - as y'all know the most important thing to make a model work is the inital coditions ( think IVC input for DE solution )...  Soooo I'm just gonna get back to dreaming about surfing a nice little swell to give us a break from Lake Atlantic, and hopefully we'll see more good info early next week.

 

 

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Edited: 07/29/2016 at 01:38 PM by surferclimber

P.S. this professor's free site through FSU is a good direct real time resource, the only thing more updated is reading the computer models output yourself from code - which I am not sure if is publically avilable???

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

 

 

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Edited: 07/29/2016 at 01:34 PM by surferclimber

We need the Anti Hype!



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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

not gonna take much of a low to get that bermuda high crankin. trade wind swell with a little hot chaucy sauce.

all i know is ive been surfing for 10 years and after seeing EVERY forecast out there and comparing them, cfldave, your the most realistic and honest ( even though we all like the wavecasters report more, because ...... hey even thigh to waist gives hope) haha but for real cflsurf.com is the bible to me in terms of forecats, thanks for keeping it realistic Dave