maybe sumpin on tha gulfcoast? or...??? THREE weekends of waves - in a row??? &

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Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean

1. An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Possible hunkering down, Charlie-Wilma track

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The Wavecaster

Yikes. Been there, done that. The last I saw, it wasn't forecast to have anywhere near major hurricane strength.

I've been watching this closely since last week when the models started showing it. I'm supposed to be heading out on a cruise to Cozumel Thursday. Hopefully I can get some surfboard rental action when I get down there. As far as the old lady is concerned this is a non surfing get away. But if there's a rental at the beach and the waves are up wow, who knew? What a surprise. Oh well, may as well get a few hours in....

Probably just GFS hype.

at least it won't ....

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Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean

Has anyone been paying attention to disturbance No. 2?

Nice wide fetch pointed our way.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#c...hic=-67.54,38.12,1828

Might see swell as long as the new Eward moving disturbance and the L coming off the NE doesn't blow it down.

http://www.stormsurf.com/locals/cb.shtml

We should be paying attention to a rather small storm 2800 miles away? We see large storms near the Azores several times each year. How often do they produce waves for us?

Possible Hanna attack on Tampa & possible Halloween swell for the east coast.

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The Wavecaster

hmmmmm....

My experience is if models show a storm hitting florida in ten days it won't. LOL. Not saying it won't, but typically those long range models are wrong, so that is a good thing, right? LOL. Hopefully that thing goes out into the Atlantic rather aground into Florida.

You want the real reason? I'll tell you - The wind fetch is always blowing in the opposite direction.

Pay attention to over 120 hours.
http://www.stormsurf.com/locals/cb.shtml

Edited: 10/22/2014 at 09:13 AM by ograbac

No, the real reason is that when a storm like this occurs with winds directed towards the western part of the Atlantic basin the swell generated has to travel 2800 miles and it decays significantly. Cutoff lows like this happen several times a year.

yes, they do decay. Much of it is due to other winds and swells that push against it.
Pay attention from about 84 to over 120 hours
http://www.stormsurf.com/locals/cb.shtml

Did you also pay attention to my original statement? Probably not.
Might see swell as long as the new Eward moving disturbance and the L coming off the NE doesn't blow it down.

Posting a link to a poor resolution model doesn't prove a point.

Long period swell is actually not impacted as much by opposing winds and waves as short period stuff. So, the shorter period waves and local winds from the low over new england will have very little impact on this swell compared to the fact that the winds with the storm by the Azores weren't super strong, the fetch was rather short and narrow and the resulting swell has to travel 2800 miles.

Want an example of how little impact the shorter period waves and opposing winds have on the incoming longer period swell? Go to Nicaragua.

1

Edited: 10/22/2014 at 10:43 AM by tingo

agreeance ..... any time the computer models go every direction on the compass after a couple of days, it is the NHC saying ..... we really don't have a clue yet.





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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

I appreciate your input, but unless your profession is oceanography (studying waves) I already know exactly the information you are telling me.

I don't know if you even read my actual first post. I don't know why you don't understand this part, it might be a biggie for ya. Might see swell as long as the new Eward moving disturbance and the L coming off the NE doesn't blow it down.
If you need help understanding it, just ask. Okay?

BTW. It's not your standard L pressure. It's been sitting there for days spitting out gale plus winds with a large wind radii (appx 300 miles or more)directed Wward.

Edited: 10/22/2014 at 01:14 PM by ograbac

I actually do have some graduate level oceanography in my pocket and I did read your post. However, I didn't know I was chatting with Walter Munk here but apparently I am based on your vast knowledge.

I was merely trying to point out to the feable minded that the reason we won't get anything appreciable from this storm is because it wasn't an impressive storm to begin with and the significant swell decay that will occur even before it encounters the winds/waves generated by the system over New England. And, that interaction won't play a significant role in further decaying the remaining longer period energy. But, carry on...