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Topic Title: Hope Thread #2
Topic Summary: If only Tory is right. VAS
Created On: 09/02/2014 08:09 AM
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 09/02/2014 08:09 AM
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daner

Posts: 7918
Joined Forum: 04/20/2004

Surf Station Forecast:
TUESDAY: Wind light NW/N in the morning, becoming NE and increasing to 6-17 mph (gusting to 20 mph toward evening) with waves starting out around 1/2-1′, building late in the day in NE wind swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph and gusty with surf up significantly to 2-2.5′ in moderate period NE/E wind swell.
THURSDAY (11 September): Wind east 10-20 mph with waves leveling off at 2.5-3′ in moderate to occ longer period easterly swell.
FRIDAY: Wind easing to ESE 6-17 mph with waves 2-3′ (occ + pm) in moderate to long period E/ESE swell.

P.S. 3 ft on his scale is head high plus.


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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean



Edited: 09/02/2014 at 08:41 AM by daner
 09/02/2014 09:52 AM
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Karma

Posts: 8028
Joined Forum: 01/26/2005

pretty much guaranteed.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.
 09/02/2014 09:54 AM
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bob3000

Posts: 15050
Joined Forum: 07/13/2004

Tory / Dean are quite often right!! Thanks for all they do! &

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Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean
 09/02/2014 09:59 AM
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Lounge-A-Rama

Posts: 1585
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

My2nd fave forecast, after Tiptime's.

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Life is a garden*Dig it!
 09/02/2014 12:05 PM
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LBLarry

Posts: 4716
Joined Forum: 05/25/2004

hope so .... that would mean waves for the Sisters of the Sea contest this weekend in Jax Bch.

great contest, for a great cause, run by a great group and founded by one of my very most fav people on the planet.

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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.
 09/02/2014 01:26 PM
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Pablote

Posts: 696
Joined Forum: 07/19/2009

what's their site address guys?!
 09/02/2014 01:36 PM
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daner

Posts: 7918
Joined Forum: 04/20/2004

surf-station.com

Register to get the extended forecast.



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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 09/02/2014 01:37 PM
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Pablote

Posts: 696
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oh- Thanks!
 09/02/2014 01:50 PM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Tropical and Extended Forecast Weather Discussion

TS Dolly in the far western Gulf of Mexico, not a wave-maker for Florida’s east or west coasts.  Looking ahead to the next source of meaningful waves, a fairly strong back-door front is forecast to nudge down the east coast into north Florida late Tuesday (Sept. 9th), producing a good fetch of moderate to strong NE/E flow for several days, building a sizeable wind swell into Thursday. In addition, an impressive area of convection poised to push off the African coast into the warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic later this week will be worth monitoring for development over the weekend and early next week, then for wave-making potential in 7-10 days (late next week) as we close in on September 10th, the Bell Curve peak of Several areas of convection will push off the African coast into the far eastern tropical Atlantic later in the week, as illustrated in the eastern Atlantic satellite loop:  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eatl/flash-wv.html and the global still satellite view illustrates several westward moving areas over the African continent:

Depending on how favorable conditions are for development in the tropical mid-Atlantic, we could have a named system plodding in our general direction across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean by the 10th of September, as models suggest the system will strengthen into a formidable Cape Verde-type hurricane through the second half of next week. Stay tuned for a heads up on the next tropical swell-maker.

As previously stated in my tropical weather summary, the dry air over the bulk of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to eventually diminish from mid-August onward, and if shear can relax over a several of the heart of the season’s critical breeding grounds tropical activity should pick up significantly during the climatologically favored early September period- prime time with SST’s reaching their seasonal peak heat content.

 

 

we've been getting HOSED up here,so we'll see

 09/02/2014 04:31 PM
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stevea

Posts: 906
Joined Forum: 11/20/2009

We'll see more after Friday, Saturday, but the 180 mark on storm surf lookin like a couple of eye balls!!!

Any hope?

 09/04/2014 06:37 AM
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daner

Posts: 7918
Joined Forum: 04/20/2004

Surfstation Forecast:

Looking ahead, there is hope for significant improvement in size starting around the middle of next week  from several wave-making sources. Check out the weather discussion in the extended forecast section for more details.

Yummy.



-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 09/04/2014 07:15 AM
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Tiptime

Posts: 9182
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Hype Alert around say Sept. 14th for the Gulf and whole East Coast.

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The Wavecaster
 09/04/2014 07:29 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52249
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Woot Woot...I guess its time to up my swimming laps again!

 09/04/2014 07:32 AM
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ww

Posts: 16088
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Jeff Masters doesn't expect much.  Wunderground

Still, that Sept 14 scenario looks lap-worthy.

 09/04/2014 08:00 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Unfortunately, I'd take Master's opinion over Dean's..... we'll see

 09/07/2014 09:21 AM
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ncsurf

Posts: 183
Joined Forum: 02/23/2011

Originally posted by: daner

Surf Station Forecast:
TUESDAY: Wind light NW/N in the morning, becoming NE and increasing to 6-17 mph (gusting to 20 mph toward evening) with waves starting out around 1/2-1′, building late in the day in NE wind swell.
WEDNESDAY: Wind NE/ENE 10-20 mph and gusty with surf up significantly to 2-2.5′ in moderate period NE/E wind swell.
THURSDAY (11 September): Wind east 10-20 mph with waves leveling off at 2.5-3′ in moderate to occ longer period easterly swell.
FRIDAY: Wind easing to ESE 6-17 mph with waves 2-3′ (occ + pm) in moderate to long period E/ESE swell.
P.S. 3 ft on his scale is head high plus.

How is this turning out? Nailed it!

 09/07/2014 10:22 AM
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daner

Posts: 7918
Joined Forum: 04/20/2004

That's why they call it forecasting.

Many more flubs like that and I'll pay less attention to his forecasts. Just like I pay less and less attention to you as you rise on the dickometer.



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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 09/07/2014 11:09 AM
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ncsurf

Posts: 183
Joined Forum: 02/23/2011

Originally posted by: daner That's why they call it forecasting.

 

Many more flubs like that and I'll pay less attention to his forecasts. Just like I pay less and less attention to you as you rise on the dickometer.

 

No, that is why they call it guessing. Forecasting is more than just looking at the latest run of the GFS and taking it for gospel. Amatuers... 

Glad to hear my dickometer is on the rise. Forecasts point to that likely increasing with time.

 09/07/2014 03:59 PM
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OBEY

Posts: 666
Joined Forum: 07/21/2006

Originally posted by: ncsurf
Originally posted by: daner That's why they call it forecasting.   Many more flubs like that and I'll pay less attention to his forecasts. Just like I pay less and less attention to you as you rise on the dickometer.[IMG][/IMG]  
No, that is why they call it guessing. Forecasting is more than just looking at the latest run of the GFS and taking it for gospel. Amatuers...  Glad to hear my dickometer is on the rise. Forecasts point to that likely increasing with time.
Let's see some of your amazing forecasting skills ncsurf. You like to be a pessimist and bitch about the GFS model but you never actually say anything about what storms will or won't do. You sucked predicting what Cristobal was going to do and spouted off some bullish*t about the GFS, which is exactly what you're doing now.

And for someone who bashes and seems to know so much about the GFS, it wasn't even the model showing what Dean/Tory were seeing, it was the CMC and NAM depicting a closed low riding north off of the East Coast. The GFS has been consistent with showing the low always being over land until it merges with the cold front later this week.

So let's hear it. What's 91L going to do this week? What's going to produce our next swell? How big will it be? What will the winds be doing?

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https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast

 09/07/2014 06:24 PM
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Northjetty101

Posts: 822
Joined Forum: 08/20/2010

You done got yourself into the spot light ncsurf, care to shed any light on the above questions?

I'm curious to see how your forecast will unfold...
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