TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
during the next few days. For more information on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

a chance of dumping rain all week

Vero got 2.6". The rest of the week can't be worse.

Also the GFS and the EURO models show a closed Tropical LOW/system off the FLA. coast of the USA around the 24th or so 

Although we can't trust ten day models, now ILM's vision of a storm is on top of Cuba on the 24/25th. 'Tis the season!

Always have to keep  faith in the hype train

 

Really cant trust anything outside 3 days when it comes to these things

 

Nope, even 3 days is a stretch,  but you never know.....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018051606&fh=324

 

 

no doubt, but that's when things get interesting.... I'll be keeping an eye on that.  Holiday weekend crowd may discourage my road trip even if things materialize

I'll be packing a moving truck that weekend which tells me that, if a system forms, it will come on shore and dump torrential rains as I try and move my family into our new home. Sorry guys.

That's not how it works Zephyr, the waves will likely be firing when you have to load the moving truck. We appreciate the sacrifice bruddah

I worked from home Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, then did ten hours in the field today.

Yea!

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I was right.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018051806&fh=204

 

hopefully keeps shifting east and off the coast to shoot some swell up here.   

 

 

Anybody think there still may be a chance for "goodness" Sunday\Monday in Brevard? Forecasters are all over the place so far.

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SK8 AND DESTROY

I am going to surf right infront of my house this weekend in south Florida! stoked... I live 15 miles from the beach....gon rain 

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The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

I am going to surf right infront of my house this weekend in south Florida! stoked... I live 15 miles from the beach....gon rain 

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The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

I am going to surf right infront of my house this weekend in south Florida! stoked... I live 15 miles from the beach....gon rain 

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The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

Next model run is soon, but ATM looking like a bust.... sans maybe a few hrs in the panhandle

heading to other coast for long weekend

guess i am bringing a board

NHC boosted development chance to 70% at 2 pm, promises an update by 8 pm.  More rain.

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Dora Hates You

Tropical storm expected, next update by 2 pm.  NHC 8 am Sat.

Looks like yesterday would have been reasonable. Amazons looks like ins ground zero. Prob was good before it got too close. Let's see if anyone got pics. Yesterday saw weather reports with waves and offshore Clearwater tec

Offshore west of there. San blas etc and points east will be a washing machine / VAS..

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There are NO white people at all in the Bible... take all the time you need with that...
Please stop feeding the trolls - they will go away if you do...

Went N. to a state w/ an offshore buoy reading of 9.2 @ 8 sec...well worth it, got tossed and made some air drops.... only 3 out...sandy brown water so much fun 

Edited: 05/29/2018 at 05:47 AM by SurferMic

Nice little adventure. Did you know the spot or just luck out?



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I was right.

 

kakalak

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sneedeker

Orange beach AL could be the call!

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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life

Too late for the mullet toss though.

http://www.florabama.com/mullet-toss.html

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Model tracks get sillly as it approaches the northern gulf. 

Wonder if this will be an unpredictable slow soaking wanderer like Debbie in 2012. 

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...

Anyone driving up? Looks like Sunday in pcb or capesandblast could get pretty fun...

www.mrsurfs.com

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

ya got a report site from that area that does not "preach the gospel" to me?



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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

 

possibly, but it'll be a gametime decision..... but the fact that I have a brutal hangover almost gurantees it'll be firing

Whoever though it was a good idea to make their website like that needs to be slapped.

Good luck Gulf Surfers! Catch one or three for all of us.

I’m going for it, if anyone else is going and wants to surf around the pcb or cape San blas area shoot me a pm.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

There has been an increase in convection to the east and southeast
of the center of Alberto this morning, however, the overall
organization of the system has not changed much. Visible satellite
imagery and recent reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the
circulation is somewhat elongated and a new low-level center could
be forming just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. As suggested
by the global models there could be several re-formations of or a
discontinuity in the track of the low-level center today. Although
there have been no recent observations to support the 35-kt
intensity, the intensity is held at that value since the aircraft
has not sampled the area well east of the center and due to the
overall increase in convection.

A shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to sharpen the larger negatively tilted trough
over the eastern Gulf, which is expected to cause the cyclone to
deepen during the next 24 to 36 hours. This trend is consistent
with the global model guidance which unanimously strengthen Alberto
through Sunday. After that time, Alberto is expected to be
co-located with the upper-level low which should result in some
decrease in shear and a possible transition to a more tropical
cyclone-like structure. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady
strengthening, but only the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance brings
Alberto near hurricane strength before landfall. Steady weakening
should occur after the center moves inland.

Alberto is moving northward to north-northeastward at about 9 kt.
The cyclone should continue on this general heading today, but it
is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down on Sunday and
Sunday night as it interacts with the mid- to upper-level
trough/low over the Gulf. The track guidance has shifted slightly
eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA
multi-model consensus. The eastward adjustment in the track
forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the
watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday
and will continue into next week.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 21.6N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 23.8N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 26.0N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.4N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 29/1200Z 31.6N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 35.6N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 39.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

Levi

Levi was very informative. Thanks

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"If the highest aim of a captain were to preserve his ship, he would keep it in port forever."-"Now relaxation of the mind from work consists on playful words or deeds. It becomes a wise and virtuous man to have recourse to such things at times." St. Thomas Aquinas ("The Angelic Doctor")

Storm stayed too close to the coast..... so wasnt very exciting overall (at least not to me) There was a brief period around HT when there were some fun dumpers, but too inconsistent.... (not enough waves / spots per people)

Good thing I had a cool travel partner, so it was fun either way, as we're both idiots...... but if you didnt go, you didnt miss a whole lot.

We saw a Haufbrau house in PCB ?!?!  so we were stoked and went there

total bust where I was at

didnt bother breaking out my board

slop

pretty fun in the morning with chest-maybe shoulder high sets at city pier in pcb, made a couple fun barrells that made the trip worth it to me..but kinda got skunked with it being so far east so the cape was flat, I probably wouldnt have made the trip had I known how small it would get in the afternoon. side note- pcb is a f*cking zoo I cant imagine living with that many oblivious tourists.

 

Pretty fair summary

Driving for waves always a crap shoot. Especially to the Gulf or South FL. Here now gone in an hour. OR you can hit it epic and score. This storm best waves I saw were right here on the east coast of central FL.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

oh its fickle for sure, but when it turns on up there its my favorite place to surf in the state. the forecast always looks pretty similar and i've caught it overhead and just reeling lefts down the beach and also driven up and didnt even touch the water it was so small.  It looked pretty crappy here i thought? chest-shoulder and windy as hell is the report i heard from a buddy. looks like Pensecola turned on for a little bit yesterday morning.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BjV_1enlV9D/?hl=en&taken-by=sterlingspencer

oh its fickle for sure, but when it turns on up there its my favorite place to surf in the state. the forecast always looks pretty similar and i've caught it overhead and just reeling lefts down the beach and also driven up and didnt even touch the water it was so small.  It looked pretty crappy here i thought? chest-shoulder and windy as hell is the report i heard from a buddy. looks like Pensecola turned on for a little bit yesterday morning.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BjV_1enlV9D/?hl=en&taken-by=sterlingspencer

It was worth a shot going over- thought about it too. That is a sweet pic from Pensecola and I'm not trying to get into a my wave is better than yours thing. The wind here was strong but from the S so you had to surf the inlet on Saturday and that was pretty fun with chest high sets-kinda crowded but not too bad-except 1st peak where you couldn't see the water for the surfers-ridiculous. Sunday morning DP the inlet had dropped in size but my buds and I kept looking and lucked out with SSW light wind and chest plus sets at a secret spot in CFL and just the 3 of us out. Glad you got some fun ones too!

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

^^^^Cole...I saw the fetch from deep off our coast directly to a certain island that faces due South somewhere well above Georgia; . Pics never do it justice, but I got humbled on a few late drops.

This place breaks hard for its size..my friend broke his leg many ago when he got drilled feet first...snapped his femur like a toothpick.

Edited: 05/30/2018 at 05:14 AM by SurferMic

 

rackalack... i smashed my wrist during irma thanks to a nice shelf drop and a trailer fin--wish i wuda used my thruster despite the small crack in the tail.

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sneedeker