National Hurricane Center puts development probability for the blob of rain over us at only 50%, but it looks like it might run up the coast, close to the Outer Banks.  If so, looks worthless in terms of wave potential.  For those with access, Washington Post's Weather Gang has an assessment.

Been watching the model updates. Hoping it doesn't hug the coast too much. The virtual buoys predictions for next week have been on a downward tick every model run. But, here is hoping we do get a NE swell kicked back at us. We deserve it. Right?

Yea it's gone from wave s for days to days until waves. FL fkd again. East coast anyway.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Irma Gunch, Modine's sister. I was wondering what the circulation over us was.

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

For those with cash to burn $200.00 will get you to Jersey on Spirit (no board , backpack w/ wetsuit stuffed under seat) ...the rest....well....it is good to know someone who lives at the "Shore"...watching...could be done for min cost..the shoobie season is winding down..

 

Edited: 08/26/2017 at 10:24 PM by SurferMic

Interesting rain forecast map.  A lot of NC is evidently having a severe drought, so it'll rain like crazy offshore.  Cold front with low pressure system moving north from Florida.  

Fly to Islip?

 

 

Daner ... right on - unfortunately

-------------------------
... positioning and selection

Long Island, Rhode Island, NJ.  NHC.

 

meh, the last one that was a full on Cane gave them only one day of surf..... this thing weaker + moving faster = don't blink or you may miss the "swell"

we have some waves here today.  waiting for tide to fill in and wind to rotate more

No drought on the Outer Banks...been raining basically every day here this summer.

got fun as the tide filled in like I hoped

Great day for Jax and presumably St. Aug.  Now to see about the prospective Julia.

virtual buoys show something from NE friday and Saturday. Could we get so lucky of having a NE swell for a 3 day weekend...(hope not cursing it)....


Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

The disturbance has developed a center that has been trackable
this evening though it is still not well-defined, since it
appears to be considerably elongated northeast-southwest. The
disturbance continues to display very cold, but extremely asymmetric
deep convection with all of the thunderstorm activity east of the
center due to strong vertical shear. Moreover, the convection is
showing no identifiable banding features. So the system is not yet
a tropical cyclone. Regardless of the label we use to describe this
hybrid system, maximum winds are around 35 kt based upon a Dvorak
classification from TAFB and observed winds just below that from
the NDBC Buoy 41013.

The initial motion of the disturbance is northeast at a faster rate
of about 10 kt. Continued acceleration is expected during the next
couple of days as a mid- to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes
moves closer to the system. The NHC forecast track takes the
disturbance across the North Carolina coastline today. By tonight,
the cyclone is forecast to move offshore and accelerate over the
Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope and is not substantially
changed from the previous advisory.

Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind
shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this
disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a
coin flip. Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-
force winds across portions of North Carolina are likely today even
if the system does not become a tropical cyclone. The system is
expected to become extratropical in 24 hours or less when it
interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough.
Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is forecast
for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing. No significant
change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 24 to 120 h are
based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 33.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1800Z 35.4N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z 39.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0600Z 41.0N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0600Z 44.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 55.0N 19.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

It is over open water now. Now we wait. Checking the buoys off the Northeast and the waters are being churned up.

Virtual buoys keep it small NE into the 3 day weekend. But, maybe they are wrong. Come on NE swell for the 3 day weekend!

Looking at those buoys to the North of us. South Hatty, etc. NE swell in the water!

Irma gonna get some. You too!

-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Irma is either the next Joaquin or the next Andrew :0

Irma now a cat 2.

 

Some model tracks have recurve

but the more reliable euro keeps it on a collision course for us, or south of Florida. Chances are it'll come right for us because I leave for Peru to surf the longest left in the world on Tuesday. Which if this thing even threatens us, work cancells my trip

 

I'm getting a little disgruntled lol. Last year the day I was supposed to surf steamer lane I got called back because of Matthew. The timing if this thing is impeccable

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

fyi, you know this already, but never plan any going away ventures in the month of September.

I know I know lol....Sometimes I don't have a choice when I'm going with a group or it's for an event like a wedding or bday ...

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Edited: 08/31/2017 at 09:41 AM by jwieland

True. good luck with the travel and lets hope this thing recurves!

Last year, I had just enough time for Matthew cleanup, and made it to Japan.  I'm cancelling my Sept. Oregon trip.  

this bitches name is irma

u better not squirma 

or she'll blow your house down and make u wanna scerma

she a tight little storm

winds are stronger than the norm

board your shit up and grab your f@#$ board

its gonna pump pump pump

big tubes tubes tubes

drop in hit the lip

pull in now its lit

the town has been destroyed

thanks irma it was a joy

-a song by yours truly

Frothing321

A masterpiece Sir Frothington the III II I.

Working on the shutters this weekend.

hesitantly hopefull this morning.  Euro now also keeps irma offshore too. All but the canadian now keeps it offshore. Of course this could flip easily so that's why I'm 'hesitantly' hopeful. You don't need me to tell you this offshore track would light up most of FLorida with EPic swell!

Canadian:

 

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Boo on the canadian. What do they know about tropical Wx. Go back and predict snow storms. LOL.

https://soundcloud.com/bassnectar/here-we-go-preview-1

 

 

 

 

-------------------------

sneedeker

a shitomaker or a widowmaker

BlowWwwwww MEeeeeeee... Puff puff, pass

-------------------------

Weather Underground this afternoon noted that most hurricanes as far north as Irma end up recurving north, not hitting any mainland areas.   But so far it doesn't look promising.

 

Edited: 09/01/2017 at 08:00 PM by ww

I certainly hope it doesnt make landfall.. but its looking like theres a good chance somebody's going to take a hit :/

Irma feels too close for comfort
I'll take pictures of all the surf down here and post if I can

I looked north of the resort I'm in and sea beach is breaking
way the hell out and throwing over crazy

-------------------------
hey, i don't know if you read this yet ----------> I <3 16streets.com

thank you Sean O'hare

Delicious beer comes from here

Also going to check out other parts of Rincon while here

-------------------------
hey, i don't know if you read this yet ----------> I <3 16streets.com

thank you Sean O'hare

Delicious beer comes from here

The 11:00 spaghetti run has the models getting closer in "agreement" and it aint lookin too good for NC and on up the coast.

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

The degree of agreement is pretty striking.  Weather Underground from a bit earlier shows bad scenarios for Florida.  

Wieland & Co. will have Irma updates starting at 7 pm at TV5.  Also, Wieland at Facebook.

 

-------------------------
If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden

eek....ground zero...fug...

Just got off roof and cut back some oak limbs and discover some shingles from Hurr Matthew need fixin. Fun Fun. Sux that the wave forecast has gone to hell with the latest.

Off to prepare some more.

Welp, another year of this sheot. I cannot believe in 2004 I had no care in the world. Owning a house changes everything. God speed fellas.

-------------------------
There is nothing better than pointing out the shortcomings of others, is there?

this storm is gonna be alot like matthew, but instead of skimming the coast and not making landfall, its gonna ram it right up floridas ass. 

One potential bright note (for us hopefully), being 7 days out that track is bound to change some

-------------------------
If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archiv...ct=5day_cone_with_line

The GFS and European models are suggesting Cuba will be hard hit.  It might not be too early to call members of Congress and maybe the White House about encouraging assistance.  It might help, too, to postpone re-imposition of travel restrictions.  

"0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma."

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone...8005&an=0&page=0#98005



-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

The 1935, 1960 and 1992 hurricanes did a lot to remodel Florida Bay.  There used to be really tall, old mangrove forests.

yuk!! WG ...

...so what state do you evacuate to??? Alabama?







-------------------------
Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

I'm gonna go visit TeeBird if that scenario happens.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

 

you gotta pass by my house to get there...

The new forecast has moved it back over the East Coast of Florida.

Yippee! Two nasty storms within a year!

Climate Change, it's not just for politics anymore.

-------------------------
I was right.

Already made condo reservations in Tampa and PCB beach....depending on what track she decides to take.

-------------------------

Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Interested to see how it interacts with mountains of Haiti/DR and Cuba. Usually hurricanes take a major hit (weakening) from them. 

" ROAD TRIP!!!"
to seaTee Bird!!!
Somebody better bring some fried chicken to eat on the way!

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

Scott declares state of emergency, all 67 counties.

LINK

.... "ensuring that local governments have ample time, resources and flexibility to get prepared for the dangerous storm."




-------------------------
Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

881 mb!
That would break the record for the most intense hurricane strike on the US.
1935 Labor Day Hurricane, 892 mb

I made a couple reservations- one in orlando as per usual in case we just need to get away a bit.

another way up in buckhead, GA in case things get really crazy

ill decide which one to keep as we get closer in..

On the bright side... offshore winds with another hurricane a few hundred miles off shore almost stationary for a day or 3


-------------------------
If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden

Doubtful with debris in water and A1A prolly washed out.

-------------------------

Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Was really hoping it would curve and stay off to coast and then head northeast.  Landfall would be a drag.  I'm hoping to hit South Carolina, but if there's a chance of it hitting Florida hard that's going to create a lot of people on the road. It'll be a mess.  

-------------------------

See y’all next summer. 

Latest updates have it nudging slightly to the west. The models are now running more to the center of the state and the west coast than the east coast.

Ironically, right now they are drawing a perfect line through the two hotels I made reservations for LOL. So now I actually booked a 3rd option in Pensacola in case it decides to just rip straight on through.

Overkill, probably, but I like to keep our options open.. as I'm seeing Cat 4 all the way til landfall

Well if trump conservatives are concerned about the Huston bills wait until they see the tab from this potential storm.

In Ohio working for the summer so stay safe my Florida brothers

I hear that- its going to cost big $$$ no matter where it hits

Checked Tropical Tidbits at 5am.  GFS and European have very similar paths.  This image of GFS is between Big purple at landfall near Naples with windfield extending well out into the Atlantic, and a considerable shrivel that leaves NSB and Daytona with wind at the beach but largely spares Orlando.  

 

 

NHC:  

The guidance envelope and many of the ensemble
members of the GFS and the ECMWF models have shifted slightly
westward since the previous run. The NHC forecast also shifted
slightly westward, and it is on top of the multi-model consensus.
The confidence in the forecast beyond 3 days is lower, since the
guidance spreads out more.

 

 

New GFS now has it making landfall around homestead/miami, grinding up the coast and popping back out to sea basically at Brevard, then smacking back into S Carolina.

also looks like she is a CAT 5 now :/

with any luck, that projection continues to trend eastward, and she curves off to sea at the last second..

Edited: 09/05/2017 at 06:00 AM by paddleout

As of the latest report:

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

That's a 17% chance of 34 knot winds, 6% 50 knot and 3% for hurricane force at 120 hours out.

But depending on speed, none of this means anything.

-------------------------
I was right.

Edited: 09/05/2017 at 06:21 AM by Cole

I pray and hope she does but I dont think the curve will be happening this go around. Irma is screaming landfall and extensive damage. Who knows...

" alt="" />

-------------------------

sneedeker

180!

185 ! !

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

Where to run?... F>>>>>>>>>>?? GAMBLE?  LEAVE EARLY IF YOU CAN, WHEN IS EARLY< OR to LATE?? we're out of water at some stores

No worries. FEMA will take care of everything! Right?

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

5 gallon buckets filled with tap water are better than nothing.  $3/ea at the hardware store, but even those stocks are being already listed as "limited". Amazon's already selling out of 5 and 7 gallon containers.

nhc mentioned this graphic in its discussion. Irma is now strongest ever Hurricane in Atlantic in history:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goe...905_1146_1244anim.gif

Right now it looks like it's going to go up the east coast like Matthew and skirt my house. I can only hope that it weakens or heads east.

 

STRONG user name / post dis-correlation!!!

Here's Dave's image.  

Model-wise the GFS sets up a very bad scenario for the Atlantic coast, what Matthew could have been.  HWRF has finally gotten to the Keys and, surprise!, it has Irma passing south of Key West and presmumably going on into the Gulf.  The NHC's 5 pm should be interesting.

 

If its any consolation, the 6am (12zulu) GFS run has shifted a bit more eastward- and now rather than entering at miami and then popping out at brevard

it is running up the coast- but very close, with the leftside eyewall winds still over the east coast of florida. look bad the way it is, but here is hoping this eastward shift continues and keeps her out at sea


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com...512&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

really strange how small this storm size is versus the hype of the wind speed.  In barbados they got 7-10' swell and they were directly about 200 away from the center of the eye.  only a 20mi eye.  it's more like a super tornado than a hurricane.  Other models have it going past key west into the gulf and nothing more drawn yet...   

 

for comparison in size -- barbados is on the bottom of the screen.  It is 20x30 miles - and about the size of the eye.  it's not a big island -- you can stand at the top of Gun Hill and see both oceans.    

This storm is hype.

The big one that missed us -- no.  it's small.  and it's going to lose steam over land and hills of PR and CU.  

 

-------------------------

it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/05/2017 at 12:40 PM by TONYlookaround

European is trending west

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

We really need to figure out how to dump something from the air into the eyewalls of these hurricanes to disrupt it and break them up.

I mean, nobody can figure that out to the tune of all the billions in damage they cause?

+1

-------------------------

Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Company called Dyn-o-Mat was supposedly trying a technique of dumping super-absorbant polymer (baby diaper filler basically) to cause premature condensation in the upper levels to disrupt the updrafts. I believe it to have been an investor scam. Never had any hope of scaling up to the quantity of material (10s of thousands of tons of material per hour dumped into the eyewall) that would be needed to have a measurable impact. The amount of latent heat energy in a hurricane is mind blowing and you wouldn't be able to lift enough material into one with airplanes to make a dent. I would be like trying to stop a Mississippi flood with soup ladels. 

Dyn-o-Mat claimed to have made a pop-up shower disappear from radar. But anybody that has observed storms that form along the seabreeze front knows that they often spontaineously go "poof" when there is something like dry or warm upper level air inhibiting convection. These diurnal cumulus often have a very short natural lifespan and there was no control for the experiment. I really think it was an investor scam like the Atlant and Aquiess rain-making scams or the fontus self filling water bottle scam.

-------------------------
...

Edited: 09/05/2017 at 05:55 PM by scombrid

Scombrid -- ever see the fleet of C130 sized commercial planes taking off for the storm ?

-------------------------

it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Quit reading ALGORE, who makes 100s of millions for his companies, and believing the climate alarmists. Shit happens. After 2004 when four major hurricanes hit FLA, the alarmists were claiming a new SUPERCYCLE of hurricanes, and what happened???? Nothing for 10+ years. Not a single major hurricane to hit the USA for 10+ years. But ignore the data. Chicken little and the sky is falling. Pretty soon you quit believing it.

I don't understand why the NHC cone model shows it almost entering the Gulf, yet the GFS and many other models are starting to suggest it could stay off the east coast of FL and hit SC? I thought the cone models were mainly based off the GFS?

The models have to deal with some complexity with the turn northward.  NHC's 5 pm forecast discussion:

A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to
lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep
Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday.
Over the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the
east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward.  The dynamical model
guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is
increasing spread thereafter.  The HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWF show a
more southerly track and a sharper turn around day 5, while the GFS
is farther north and east late in the period.  The NHC track is near
a consensus of these models and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus.

_____________________________

The current GFS track has gone far enough offshore to spare us, as Matthew did, but it hits land at Myrtle Beach, S.C.  Splat!

HWRF hits the Keys about Marathon, goes inland over Everglades National Park, and produces hurricane winds from Port Charlotte to Stuart.  Key Largo gets a beating.

 

 

I'm wondering the same

Puerto Rico....

If I read the colors right -- that is 60kt beachside, maximum.  looks like Matthew. 

16mph forward speed with a 20mi eye -- I would think limits storm surge to the bottom lower end of the range.  There is a full moon right now, which is bad if it's overhead, a higher high tide.  In a week it wont be full anymore. Bad for PR.    

Compare this to Jeanne with a >100mi eye and 3-4mph forward speed...  how different could 2 hurricanes be ?  

I stay with my position that this will be a non-event for us compared to Fake Weather on TV.   All I needed to see was the live clips from Home Depot suggesting people to run down and buy buy buy.  

Miami would panic the most because they have missed everything since Andrew.  

Also - Barbados was 120 mi from the eye yesterday when it was supposedly cat5.  They had 7' swell.  that doesnt add up to me - it more like a super tonado than a hurricane.  Looked like really fun right barrels on surfline.  winds were like 20mph.  

 

 

-------------------------

it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/06/2017 at 03:29 AM by TONYlookaround

Right now, Chicken Little is a cat 5 storm meandering it's way to our coast. lol

Al Gore ain't got nuthin to do with it.



-------------------------
I was right.

Karma- where do you go to see the European?

We already have it.  http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=12828  thats why the discussion has gone silent -- the murder we are doing to our planet and super heating our oceans...  for state farm and allstate profits - think of the billions they have stuffed into their pockets over the last 12 years from the fleet of planes...    

http://www.anomalies-unlimited.com/Chemtrails/Dyn-O-Gel.html 

dyn-o-mat was here in Melbourne for a while... 

 

-------------------------

it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/05/2017 at 12:54 PM by TONYlookaround

from 5pm Tuesday:

Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma
is moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt. A strong ridge
extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to
steer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days. A large
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to
lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep
Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday.
Over the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the
east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. The dynamical model
guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is
increasing spread thereafter. The HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWF show a
more southerly track and a sharper turn around day 5, while the GFS
is farther north and east late in the period. The NHC track is near
a consensus of these models and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast
track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track
errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5,
respectively.


INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 59.8W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.6N 61.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.5N 64.6W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.5N 67.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 70.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 21.6N 75.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 22.7N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 24.4N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

we have guys with electric car and space companies with billions that haven't found a way to drop ice into these things....sad. to be a guy who grew up with jestsons on in the backround, what an effing disappointment. 2017 for cryin out loud. segways? plz.....and before we go running off into space for more''exploration' let's fix the mess we've created here first before we go a frappin' on the rest of the universe. 

Latest UK met looks like a Francis/Jeannie/Matthew type affair as far as we in Brevard are concerned..

Potentially real bad and very close.. Way too close for nice clean 16+ sec offshore waves in debris free waters.. 200 miles to the east would have been the call..

I know it's quite a ways off, but as a minimum it looks  like cleaning up mucho palm fronds..  I def do not want to deal with fence replacement, roof issues etc - assuming house is 'OK'.

Something else to the east way out there, and also a potential in the SW gulf... Busy busy busy!!! Saw a 'Cat 6' headline out there.. WTF? But def not related to 'climate change' - right?..

Forgot how to cut/paste pics or links ...

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma

-------------------------
There are NO white people at all in the Bible... take all the time you need with that...
Please stop feeding the trolls - they will go away if you do...

The news keeps saying Irma is the strongest ever in the Atlantic. There have been storms with higher winds and a decent amount lower pressure, in the Atlantic. Just asking. Wilma was 882 at one point.

-------------------------
If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden

Strongest storm in the Atlantic Ocean, excluding GOMEX and Caribbean.
Wilma was in the Caribbean when she hit 882.
The open Atlantic is typically a more hostile environment for hurricanes.

VERY GOOD READ HERE:

http://www.wunderground.com/ca...ntic-hurricane-record

"NHC's official 5-day forecast as of 11 am EDT brings Irma to the Florida Keys by Sunday morning. At this point, it appears the most likely course for Irma after its right-hand turn is to move northward near Florida's west coast or up the western side of the peninsula from around Sunday into Monday. This is the scenario favored by the operational 00Z Tuesday run of the European model, as well as two of the highest-probability ensemble members from that run. The other three highest-probability Euro tracks keep Irma offshore, either to the west or east of the Florida peninsula; one of those three tracks results in a landfall in the Florida Panhandle, and the other two would be a devastating blow to The Bahamas. The operational 00Z, and the ensemble members from the 00Z Tuesday GFS model run, are more tightly clustered around a track near or just off Florida's west coast, but again with some variation. The 06Z run of the GFS takes Irma near Miami and along Florida's east coast."

LOTS MORE AT LINK ABOVE

Best site yet for info, for me anyways. I'm sure a lot of you know it already.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

-------------------------
If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden

Nobody has mentioned the 18z GFS model run. I felt better when I saw it.

That looks better for us. Not NC. I really do hope that the GFS is overdone on intensity after the turn to the north.

Of course all the other models are to our west and a lot slower in forward speed than GFS. Blend them all and the next center dot for 2PM Monday will be right around Lake Okeechobee and Brevard will be in the fat end of the uncertainty cone.

I'm afraid the front from the west is coming in too early since the front arrives on Thusday while the cyclone is still far away. Front washes out and becomes quasi-stationary. Cyclone lifts north into the weakness and gets hung up around the Carolina mountains or maybe SW Virginia where the rain could be catastrophic. 

Question then is the 200 mile wide swath of uncertainty for the path north. Which side of the peninsula or straight up the gut?

 

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I just saw it- looks better

and on another bright note, nat hurricane center just updated, and brevard looks to be out of the big cone..

should we....should we wax the guns...?

I checked the 10 day forecast for Dauphin Island, Alabama and New Orleans and a front will pass over them on Thursday, then they go on a multi day run of sunny weather and lower humidity, so high pressure is building in. Let's just hope it extends far enough south to turn the Bitch away from our coast.

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I was right.

New NHC chart is out and we are back in the cone. Hope this thing hits some Cuban mountains on the way over..

yeah i found that interesting as well- the center of that last cone should be farther over to the east judging by how the models look.. NHC must have their reasons

They widened the cone at the end of five days, which means a lot of uncertainty in the timing and angle of the turn. A lot of variables at play and all bets are off. Don't make plans based on the center of the track at five days out.

NHC delibrately doesn't immediately follow rapid changes in the models.  They found from experience that the models tend to come back to where they'd been.  

Here's the latest GFC image for our area:

 

The Barbuda buoy recorded wind gusts up to 135 knots before going bye bye

 

 

 

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Yes- are those wind colors in knots or mph?

The model Charts never say

Tonylookaround run towards the eye not away, you will be squashed.

Chopola - The eye will turn square and widden when its below miami.  Thats from the fleet of adapted commericalized C130 planes making runs.  

They learned in matthew not to do that too early.  In Katrina they did it too late and stalled the system over NOLA.  In Harvey they got it about right.   The other day I found my katrina square-eye screen shots of broadcast radar frames I'll post.  

Cat5 <> 7' swell... 

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Prob not a good time for the tinfoil hat dude

 

www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

 

 

euro and gfs are in sync for the first time... A d not in a good wat. :-(

tony please tell me you are trolling

Yesterday at this time they had it projected to follow Cuba's coastline, then last night the center line was going through the Florida straits, and now it's straight up the middle of FL. Am I being too optimistic in thinking, at the rate that the path keeps nudging north earlier, if it keeps that up, we may be spared from any direct landfall in FL completely?