fyi, models shows a possible storm forming near the Cape Verde Islands and making it all the way across the Atlantic on the long range models. Something to watch!

1. A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the
eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast
to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Hype-r Drive, Engage!!!

-------------------------
Do you know what Wubba-LubbA-Dub-Dub means in BirdPerson language?

The next JINX!!!!

Engage Anti Hype Scotty!

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

here is what GFS/AVN shows in 7 days Friday Aug 11.




Now we sit back and wait...claim hype, talk new board curse, going out of town, winds will be onshore, long close out lines, blah blah blah....LOL.

Ten Days shows recurve and right in our pocket!




Geez, if only these long range models were correct all the time! However, something to watch and debate. I like it. Football and Hurricane season nears!

Just got a new board how many days out before curse eases?

I think this one will make me finally go get the annual hurricane supplies stocked up for this year.  Tropics are starting to kick!

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My Facebook Picture Page

looks promising

10 days litte bit of "expected track error" in the model LOL... here's 5 days and the way that's pointing pretty much can ensure gonna get some swell  

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

 

 

 

It'll be fun to watch, until hope gets ripped away like the last! lol  

 

this time mightbe different, because the Euro has it too, 

 

 

 

Just brings it into the caribbean and weakens it there

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Think I'll up the lap count in the pool...Even it doesn't form like showing in the long range, at least it is moving towards us for a few days.

Just showed the wife and she asked when? I said a week from Monday. Her answer, NOPE...and, back with the headphones on. Flavor Flav says, "Don't Believe The Hype"

-------------------------

 

LMAO sounds about the same response I get from my wife... she does trust me when I say time to go time to get outta here though! I stayed through one once years when I was in college, direct landfall borderline cat 1/2, and not anything I'd ever wanna go through again!!! A lot of people give me crap about bailing since I have properties and I always say rather be safe than sorry + lots of nice hotels in Tampa or Atlanta for quick vacation which never know might get paid for by insurance LOL And most of the people who give me crap haven't been through a real one!! Really since Andrew we really haven't had one ( well 2004 if lived in Punta Gorda or maybe Hutchinson island ) which worries me with the population size nowadays as. I know lots who stayed through Matthew who got lucky and are  probably complacent to the fact that they never had anything more than TS level winds...

 

Let's hope we don't have one this season but if we do let's hope people are smart & stay safe!!!

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Magic seaweed has next Sunday 33' @ 17 seconds and 80mph gusts; sure hope this changes soon.....

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Brevard Surf Report

-------------------------

sneedeker

Ugh, Friday morning model runs in the long range....ugh....

Ok, is it too early to start the RECURVE Prayer? Or, too late.

I mentioned this in the 8/1 thread, why I dont blow off work for waist high waves....

As much as I'd love an excuse to wax up the big boards,  I havent even finished putting my house back together from Matthew  (seriously not even living in my house yet).... not really a fan of the idea of a STRONG cat 4 just off the coast 

 

 

 

Put on your Rally Hat!....Go HYPE, Go!

The Charleston area still has homes needing repairs (usually starting with roofing).  Churches have been helping organize assistance.  I'm sure there's still flood damage in North Carolina in places like Lumberton.

Yep,  some areas up here are still trashed from Matthew.  Been a lot of rain here recently too.  

There's still plenty of people living in campers here in St. Augustine..... over 500 homes were severly damaged or destroyed, with mine being one of them. 

Friday morning showing Monday Aug 14th:




Think hurricane preparedness this weekend...just in case the long range models get this right. AND, PRAY RECURVE...and, out to sea...

that's the 00z.... the 06z has it further out but STRONGER (pushing cat 5)

Total crapshoot at this point (esp considering the EURO hasnt hopped on board yet) but worth monitoring.... especially for those of us who got flooded last year.

I'm stocking up on tubes of 4200

Hey weatherman is surfing in Florida permanently fuct or is this just transitory. What role has geoengineering played in the demise of our sport? If any just curious.

Dang! GFS has a Cat 5 direct hit on the 14th.

Yes, models are going to bounce around with each model run. It isn't even a named storm yet and a week away. So this goes into the 'hype' category at this point in time. However, this weekend for me will be eyeing the storm shutters looking around the yard and any projectiles get secured. AND, continue swimming 1/4 mile a day and step that up to maybe 1/2 mile. gotta be in shape to paddle out in hurricane surf! (knock on wood)...

Similar too Floyd in 99.  

Well the Atlantic high pressure has been pretty much in the same place for a long time. If it does develop we better hope something from the north pushes in to allow for the swing. I call this a hope 1 for no landfall.

bouy models now showing 4-5ft @ 16sec showing on the 11th and just building and building onward. 

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-

As the models turn. 12Z friday. I'm breathing easier now....but...of course this isn't even a named storm yet. So much can change and will (obviously).

and just like that, our epic swell turns to waist high windchop.  LOL

Gotta love the GooFuS model.
Expected though, when you start to see it closer to 5/7 days out, and similar on the Euro....then we can get a little excited.

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Hype killed it before it was even a named storm. Or, it was that new board curse above...hmmm...

tune in next week for the next edition of "The Next Hope or Hype"

Wait, new run out....splitting the uprights and coming right for us! lol

I love watching these things. Honestly though, we'll know a lot more next week when it forms. for now, enjoy all the crazy different runs.. Can't wait for the wave models to catch up to this run!  lol

 

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Awesome to have a pro Meteorologist on here going over storm details

...ditto!

Skunkape,
Please don't harass a knowlegable meteorlogist who generously posts on this site.
Not even sure what you said any way, but say it to one of the trolls, not Mr. Wieland.

we hyped, and NHC lowered the probability of it becoming a storm.

so heres the deal,

no hype. its flat. it sucks. quit surfing. then hopefully youll wake up next week and a cat 5 will be knocking at your door with overhead walls.

 

 

Sunday the 13th

-------------------------
The Wavecaster

gert squirt

-------------------------

sneedeker

Please continue ignoring.

 

Update:  Back down to 10%.  No need to ignore.  

Edited: 08/06/2017 at 04:43 PM by ww

Euro calling this a wave maker from todays runs... and its not that many days out from now sooo yea, attention people. 

-------------------------

The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

Hi,

Im fishing West End this Saturday and Sunday.

Am I good???

Dry air is going stunt development, but I can see it becoming a TD....  I'm not expecting much, but we should see some bumps... just this fetch to clear the bahama shadow:

tip


I just put that on my shared calendar.

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

CMC, too.  I'm s'posed to be somewhere else.

ehh.....  pretty sure the CMC stands for CREATING MASSIVE/MULTIPLE CYCLONES

 

I usually like the GFS for stuff like this (although they always get crazy on their initial runs).... Initially that model was hyping this system and no one else.  Now theyre off the 99L train and the Euro hops on.  Truth is prob somewhere in between.

Although I'm leaning towards the EURO as that wave is showing a bit of spin, and area will be much more favorable as it gets closer.

If it's just a TS (and an assymetrical one at that) the swell will be from the SE.... then poof.  if that's the case, Sunday could be funday.

But considering I have a project deadline on both monday and tuesday it'll prob be then 

Home Depot must have called NHC and said to please help with plywood sales!


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located over the Bay of Campeche.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of
low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands has continued to increase slightly in organization
since yesterday. While development should be slow to occur due
to unfavorable environmental conditions, the environment is forecast
to improve by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over
the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

well, I hope it starts to develop well to our south or there will be minimal fetch sending waves this way

-------------------------
"If you'll have but a little Patience, you may see them make very noble Efforts towards striking off the Heads of the tall Poppies". This message is approved by CRETIN

 

hahahahhahahh

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

NWS melbourne discussion tidbit 3:30pm today:

By Sun/Mon, 12Z GFS
brings mid-level circulation associated with current mid Atlantic
tropical disturbance to the NW Bahamas, but keeps the surface
reflection very weak. Meanwhile, 12Z ECMWF recurves a stronger
and more vertically aligned system east of the Bahamas. Regardless
of these solutions, neither scenario brings any land impacts to
CWA, but still will need to be closely monitored.

What do Europeans know about hurricanes anyway.....

 

Lol

tried for an hour and cant make it happen. but if i could you would be watching; willie wanka you get nothing remix by srslysiirius.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4UDnTJcjPhY

Edited: 08/10/2017 at 09:51 AM by Skunkape

Well this has been an interesting ride hasn't it!?!?  

up and down up and down lol.  This is why you can't call a major swell event 300 hrs out soley from the GFS. lol It always wants to spark up things in the long range.  (Although I do like making fun of it when it puts a storm right on top of us 325hrs out. lol)
This wave is just battling an upper level low and losing right now. THe ULL will unwind though and give it a chance to develop,(and I bet it does) but by that time it's already past it's prime wave-making ability for us. Even it it becomes a hurricane NE of the Bahamas, all the fetch will be on the far side of the storm pointed north and not toward florida... So it looks like only a slight increase Monday, unless the thing tries to do some loops which is unlikely. Since we will gett skunked down here...I'll be coming up to find something monday, better than nothing. 

Don't worry my friends, there will be more opportunities coming

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Edited: 08/11/2017 at 09:05 AM by jwieland

I love that earth.nullschool webpage. Anyone know anything about it. Like who and why they put it out. Pretty cool website and graphics.

Looks like some kind of spin went over us today....

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Circle jerk engaged.....let the spin begin....

 

 

plus if you look on that nullschool map (I love that site also... pretty accurate too) you can see the circulation starting to close off.  Getting closer to lower wind shear and warmer water. Could be a depression today and a weak TS tomorrow... before skooting out to sea.  (all fetch will be on the NE side, so it better get its act together quick for us to get surf)

Edited: 08/12/2017 at 05:54 AM by Plan B

Like I was saying earlier....

 

I like that it's blowing SE from 25ºN.... granted the fetch seems quite small

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands continues to show some signs of organization, but
there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation. Conditions
remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form during the next day or two. The low is forecast to move
northwestward and northward through the weekend, and then turn
to the northeast away from the United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Finally 99L made something of itself, just 600miles off our coast

 

still though, The strongest winds are on the east side which is not pointed at us, Still think we will get at least waist high, maybe chest swell Monday with light winds. Might last longer now if this expands, it's not moving all that fast. 

 

Should we start talking about the next one?  lol  We would get so many more swells if the GFS came true!  

 

Actually the canadian is worse than the GFS when it comes to tropical systems. But man if it came true once in a while we would get a heck of a swell

 

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Edited: 08/12/2017 at 09:39 PM by jwieland

The CMC (C.reating M.ultiple C.yclones) is garbage

Also looks like the EURO is starting to hop on that next wave (satelittle is impressive)... and I'm supposed to go out of town next sun-tues and have yet to finish fixing my house from Matthew so........

any back to TD8...  moving NNW 14 is too fast given the aasymetrical fetch direction.  I agree on your assesment of the surf size based on the offshore buoys.  Prob waist to chest tomorrow morn.... and may be bigger up here than CFL south.  Buoy 47 is 7'@ 8 sec..... so prob cut that down to maybe 3@9 when it gets here?

All I know I'm glad I've been swimming 1/4 mile a day, or at least trying to. Bigger surf is gonna happen eventually.

The north bahama buoy looks interesting now (Sunday morning). Up to 7 feet from ESE. Something should trickle in on Monday from that.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

815am eyeball viz: Something is trickling in right now....

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

I have recently been incorportating pool laps in my work out. Any differences you can speak of as far as endurance or paddle strangth?

 

-------------------------

The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

Thanks. Maybe a good time to blow the dust off the board! LOL, I've been surfing but so ready for bigger surf. Yeah for both school, football, AND, hurricane season for kicking off! Mosquito season is in full effect also so the next hope/hype wish will be a cold front.

I'm with ya Dave! Wondering if/ when I'll get to ride my shortboard as the board of choice....


-------------------------
Time and tide wait for no one.....

Place ya bets.... step right up and place ya bets...

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 71.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 71.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through today.
A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reports from a NOAA buoy
is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

Very fun day Sunday on the log.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

The winds aren't gaining too much strength, but it's rapidly increasing surface area...which hopefully increases the size of the wind field.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/...ane/atlantic/satellite

-------------------------
I was right.

Wind forecast.

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/cocoa_beach


With any luck some swell shows up tomorrow.

-------------------------
I was right.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GERT...

Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...GERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...

Gert made hurricane strength...but bye bye Gert! So, it was hope to hype to hope to hype to back to hope...


Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

...GERT BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

Looks like there is a parade of red blobs coming out of Africa.

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Our odds are increasing.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Swimming laps is good. Doing underwater laps is also good. BUTT if you want to feel a difference in your surfing endurance (thread steal) there is nothing better than an hour of plyometrics or kempo 2x a week. You will know the difference.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Yes, swimming laps is the best. Endurance and strength improvements. No brainer. It helps to have a pool in the backyard though. I use to swim laps in the shorepound when I lived beachside then jog in the soft sand. But, no longer live beachside so swim laps in the pool instead. It really helps me and It is a requirement for me to do. At my age, gotta keep moving! Which reminds me I have slacked off and haven't swam in 3 days.

Just for the record books and any future internet searches. Gert made Cat 2

Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017

...GERT BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...

UMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 62.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

What up yall!  It's been a while, just wanted to jump on the hype train.  MSW showing 4.5' @ 10 sec for Tues/Wed.  Let's do this thing!

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Jesus invented surfing...
Matthew 14:22-33

www.facebook.com/churchonthebeach

Seems to me if it goes through the strait as most models above seem to show we won't get much more than a Gert squirt.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Edited: 08/17/2017 at 09:04 AM by daner

Need some more hype juice.....Intensity forecasts are up some since yesterday

-------------------------

Ask me how to take almost free surf trips anywhere.

well how's this then.... LOL!

 

*yawn*

Flatness Forever

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean