TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
during the next few days. For more information on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

a chance of dumping rain all week

Vero got 2.6". The rest of the week can't be worse.

Also the GFS and the EURO models show a closed Tropical LOW/system off the FLA. coast of the USA around the 24th or so 

Although we can't trust ten day models, now ILM's vision of a storm is on top of Cuba on the 24/25th. 'Tis the season!

Always have to keep  faith in the hype train

 

Really cant trust anything outside 3 days when it comes to these things

 

Nope, even 3 days is a stretch,  but you never know.....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018051606&fh=324

 

 

no doubt, but that's when things get interesting.... I'll be keeping an eye on that.  Holiday weekend crowd may discourage my road trip even if things materialize

I'll be packing a moving truck that weekend which tells me that, if a system forms, it will come on shore and dump torrential rains as I try and move my family into our new home. Sorry guys.

That's not how it works Zephyr, the waves will likely be firing when you have to load the moving truck. We appreciate the sacrifice bruddah

I worked from home Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, then did ten hours in the field today.

Yea!

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I was right.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018051806&fh=204

 

hopefully keeps shifting east and off the coast to shoot some swell up here.   

 

 

Anybody think there still may be a chance for "goodness" Sunday\Monday in Brevard? Forecasters are all over the place so far.

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SK8 AND DESTROY

I am going to surf right infront of my house this weekend in south Florida! stoked... I live 15 miles from the beach....gon rain 

-------------------------

The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

I am going to surf right infront of my house this weekend in south Florida! stoked... I live 15 miles from the beach....gon rain 

-------------------------

The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

I am going to surf right infront of my house this weekend in south Florida! stoked... I live 15 miles from the beach....gon rain 

-------------------------

The Dude Abides.

http://www.rollerphotography.com/

Next model run is soon, but ATM looking like a bust.... sans maybe a few hrs in the panhandle

heading to other coast for long weekend

guess i am bringing a board

NHC boosted development chance to 70% at 2 pm, promises an update by 8 pm.  More rain.